October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

February 2017 was like that too. A sudden model shift from mild SW flow to arctic air and heavy snow. The cold and snowy solutions verified.

Basically, not all scenarios are the same. Sometimes it is easier to draw conclusions about the future state of the atmosphere than others. This is as true for longer-range scenarios as it is for shorter-range ones, and a significant agreement from model to model and run to run is the signal that we are likely in one of those easier to forecast situations.

[Catnip]

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[Monty]

The 85 event was more notable for extreme cold rather than snow. Totals were light/moderate overall.

Of course the island got buried in a blizzard as the outflow kicked up in late November. 2 feet of snow and temps between -6 and -12C. I believe that is the snowiest November in history at Shawnigan Lake. I remember my dad telling me stories of the near 60cm that fell overnight as the temps dropped. Someone he knew almost lost his float plane and dock under the weight of the snow.

[AbbyJr]

Of course the island got buried in a blizzard as the outflow kicked up in late November. 2 feet of snow and temps between -6 and -12C. I believe that is the snowiest November in history at Shawnigan Lake. I remember my dad telling me stories of the near 60cm that fell overnight as the temps dropped. Someone he knew almost lost his float plane and dock under the weight of the snow.

Yeah the Island scores big time in the snow department during strong outflow events. The air is often too dry over the Lower Mainland and Fraser Valley but moist enough on the island. It really depends on the track of the low but I've seen many cases where the Island was buried and the mainland was bone dry.

[Weather101]

Low though not high but still decent.

I will take snow over super cold anyway

[Glacier]

My dad's basement is flooded in Williams Lake. The amount of rain there is far and away the most they've ever had in October...

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[Typeing3]

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Looks kinda backdoorish. Coldest anomalies in Alberta, Montana and E Washington/Oregon.

[Typeing3]

Yeah the Island scores big time in the snow department during strong outflow events. The air is often too dry over the Lower Mainland and Fraser Valley but moist enough on the island. It really depends on the track of the low but I've seen many cases where the Island was buried and the mainland was bone dry.

Overall, they do cash in on massive snowfalls more than us.

We often do well with NW systems on the mainland though. Some instances of snowstorms over here while the Island gets shadowed in that setup.

[arbetrader]

Yeah the Island scores big time in the snow department during strong outflow events. The air is often too dry over the Lower Mainland and Fraser Valley but moist enough on the island. It really depends on the track of the low but I've seen many cases where the Island was buried and the mainland was bone dry.

Yeah I remember that very clearly, it is the time in my childhood I became interested in weather (November 1985). I remember watching roger's cablesystems weather broadcast, and the banner at the bottom showed -18C in Abbotsford during the coldest of the days. I could hardly believe my eyes. Although we didn't get too much snow - it's no surprise that the island got nailed. Seems often that Black creek area gets hit with the most lol - perhaps there's a convergence zone in that area

[Typeing3]

Seems often that Black creek area gets hit with the most lol - perhaps there's a convergence zone in that area

Sea effect snow. With the rignt setup, parts of the east island can get nailed with 30cm+ in one night.

[Catnip]

Weeklies

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[Michael1]

Of course the island got buried in a blizzard as the outflow kicked up in late November. 2 feet of snow and temps between -6 and -12C. I believe that is the snowiest November in history at Shawnigan Lake. I remember my dad telling me stories of the near 60cm that fell overnight as the temps dropped. Someone he knew almost lost his float plane and dock under the weight of the snow.

All the roads out in Gordonhead and Cadboro Bay were choked- the buses didn't run for 2 days. There were paths worn into the centres of the main roads where people would walk.

[Typeing3]

Lots of cold air building up in Northern BC and Yukon on the long range 18z.

Just need a well placed NPAC ridge to force it further south. Lots of potential.

Day12

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Day14

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Day16

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[Catnip]

Lots of cold air building up in Northern BC and Yukon on the long range 18z.

Just need a well placed NPAC ridge to force it further south. Lots of potential.

Day12
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Day14
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Day16
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#middleofNOV

[Catnip]

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