November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Bonovox]

The EPS may be out to lunch.

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/132 ... 92578?s=20

[wetcoast91]

18Z GFS just killed that Fri/Sat storm...

Good news is we absolutely torch midweek!



Very mild departures in November = late December cold snaps.

[stuffradio]

18Z GFS just killed that Fri/Sat storm...

Good news is we absolutely torch midweek!



Very mild departures in November = late December cold snaps.

To put this into perspective, this is about 7C and not 15-20C.

gfs_2020111118_fh150_sounding_CYXX.png

[wetcoast91]

To put this into perspective, this is about 7C and not 15-20C.
gfs_2020111118_fh150_sounding_CYXX.png

Easterly gradient...would result in warm downsloping winds. +15C!!!

[Storm]

Easterly gradient...would result in warm downsloping winds. +15C!!!

Welcome back.

[Bonovox]

Easterly gradient...would result in warm downsloping winds. +15C!!!

Historically, I think your warm bias for these events is around +5 degrees.

[Weather101]

Main focus remains on potentially stronger system that will move
across the area Friday afternoon into early Saturday. High
uncertainty remains as models are having a tough time initializing
the system - which appears as unorganized blob right now over the
Pacific around 40N, 180W, some 3000 miles away. In the next 48
hours, the system will materialize and consolidate as it travels
to western Washington. Exact track of the low into the Pacific
Northwest will have large implications on the subsequent wind
forecast and expected impacts locally.

[PortKells]

Easterly gradient...would result in warm downsloping winds. +15C!!!

What the hell just happened Is this a model battle? I truly believe it is as hard to get consistent N/W flow around here as it is to get arctic blasts. 90 percent of the time it shows up in the models it suddenly disappears and turns into nito-apples, err pineapples. Or dirty ass ridges.

[Catnip]

What the hell just happened Is this a model battle? I truly believe it is as hard to get consistent N/W flow around here as it is to get arctic blasts. 90 percent of the time it shows up in the models it suddenly disappears and turns into nito-apples, err pineapples. Or dirty ass ridges.

Nito hacked the supercomputers again.

[wetcoast91]

Nito hacked the supercomputers again.

It's easy to hack. You shove a pineapple AND papaya into it.

[AbbyJr]

The Euro has a weird track for Fridays low. It heads towards Oregon and then suddenly curves northwest around the south island.

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-mslp-1605117600-1605254400-1605283200-40.gif

[Weather101]

I think the models could be struggling

[Storm]

Nito, what do you think?
https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 85633?s=19

[AbbyJr]

I think the models could be struggling

Without a doubt.

[Bonovox]

There's just far too much variability in the models right now. I suspect this thing will be a non event for the Lower Mainland (relatively speaking), but here are the 18z EPS individual members. The general track seems to take the low from Forks to Bellingham.