November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Weather101]

He's in good form this morning. Looks like he's downvoted all your posts.

Every single one just waiting for a big let down in the models so I can troll him and everyone

[Catnip]

12z GFS ensembles:

[Typeing3]

Thinking we may have to wait till later in Dec (after the 20th or so) for any notable cold or snow. Cold anoms will probably favour the east for most of the month.

[Catnip]

Thinking we may have to wait till later in Dec (after the 20th or so) for any notable cold or snow. Cold anoms will probably favour the east for most of the month.

Tend to agree with this. The Euro weeklies were hinting at this possibility.

That is the best time for it anyways imo.

[hawk2]

Tend to agree with this. The Euro weeklies were hinting at this possibility.

That is the best time for it anyways imo.

Yes but by then, half the opportunities for snow are already gone..and like Stuffman and Nito say...sun angle gets higher...more daytime heating, etc etc. after Dec 20.

Edit: Ok maybe not half..but 1/3 for sure

[Typeing3]

Yes but by then, half the opportunities for snow are already gone..and like Stuffman and Nito say...sun angle gets higher...more daytime heating, etc etc. after Dec 20.

Late December into mid February (historically) is prime time for our most significant (cold, snow) winter events. We should be fine.

[South Island]

Yes but by then, half the opportunities for snow are already gone..and like Stuffman and Nito say...sun angle gets higher...more daytime heating, etc etc. after Dec 20.

Edit: Ok maybe not half..but 1/3 for sure

Sun angles don’t really have an impact until we get into February. As noted above historically our best snow and cold chances come after dec 15.

[Weather101]

Yes but by then, half the opportunities for snow are already gone..and like Stuffman and Nito say...sun angle gets higher...more daytime heating, etc etc. after Dec 20.

Edit: Ok maybe not half..but 1/3 for sure

November isn't really the best time to get cold and snow anyways so I would be fine with late December and January it's in the heart of winter.

[Monty]

Tend to agree with this. The Euro weeklies were hinting at this possibility.

That is the best time for it anyways imo.

Agreed. The way the models look now, we could be waiting awhile. Seeing some signs of an Aleutian low wanting to get setup. They can be persistent but can also serve to weaken the PV on occasion.

[AbbyJr]

Agreed. The way the models look now, we could be waiting awhile. Seeing some signs of an Aleutian low wanting to get setup. They can be persistent but can also serve to weaken the PV on occasion.

Imagine the meltdown on the American forums if 2020/2021 ends up being a 1999/2000 redux.

[stuffradio]

La Nina's are usually backloaded. We're not even in Meteorological Winter. Ask me in March if this was a horrible winter.

[PortKells]

Imagine the meltdown on the American forums if 2020/2021 ends up being a 1999/2000 redux.

That one will melt down no matter what. This one won't be pretty either if this winter sucks balls but we would get past it as usual. I just hate seeing all these epic predictions because that doesn't help. If it was epic, we would enjoy it either way. But if it sucks, we'll feel ripped off.

[wetcoast91]

Agreed. The way the models look now, we could be waiting awhile. Seeing some signs of an Aleutian low wanting to get setup. They can be persistent but can also serve to weaken the PV on occasion.

This is good if you want a cold JFM. Persistant pattern to really allow an Berring Sea to ice over and AK/Yukon cold pool to develop. Keep any positive heights away from the GOA right now.

Though I always urge caution. A strong -ENSO with a +EPO and +AO can really act like a strong +ENSO minus the californian rains.

[Weather101]

Imagine the meltdown on the American forums if 2020/2021 ends up being a 1999/2000 redux.

It would be trolling heaven for me

[Storm]

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/1 ... 52550?s=19