December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
Post Reply
User avatar
Rubus_Leucodermis
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 6346
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:48 pm
Location: Vancouver
Elevation: 70 m / 230 ft
Has thanked: 4874 times
Been thanked: 12963 times

Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

hawk2 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:02 pm If the GFS fails this weekend again they might as well just throw that model out it's such a disaster most of the time :bs: :bs:
Wouldn’t be a surprise if it does. It has a cold bias. Remember last January?

I’d be more optimistic if the Euro was calling for snow.
It's called clown range for a reason.
Top
User avatar
Storm
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 7094
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:09 pm
Location: North Burnaby/Burquitlam
Has thanked: 2493 times
Been thanked: 12532 times

Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:14 pm Wouldn’t be a surprise if it does. It has a cold bias. Remember last January?

I’d be more optimistic if the Euro was calling for snow.
It did on the 12z run. How did that go?
North Burnaby/Burquitlam
Elevation - 64 M./210 Feet
Top
User avatar
Rubus_Leucodermis
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 6346
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:48 pm
Location: Vancouver
Elevation: 70 m / 230 ft
Has thanked: 4874 times
Been thanked: 12963 times

Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Storm wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:19 pm It did on the 12z run. How did that go?
Outliers will outlie.
It's called clown range for a reason.
Top
User avatar
Bonovox
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 6738
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:10 pm
Location: Ladner
Elevation: Sea Level
Has thanked: 4808 times
Been thanked: 15613 times

Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

I like to look at individual members on the ensemble when there is a marginal event a few days out. As you can see, we are threading the needle. Cool to have something to track finally, however.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Spring/Summer :sick: Fall/Winter :thumbup:

Ladner - Elevation: Sea Level

Wx Station: https://tempestwx.com/station/41362/grid
Top
User avatar
Bonovox
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 6738
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:10 pm
Location: Ladner
Elevation: Sea Level
Has thanked: 4808 times
Been thanked: 15613 times

Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:38 pm I like to look at individual members on the ensemble when there is a marginal event a few days out. As you can see, we are threading the needle. Cool to have something to track finally, however.
And here is the GEPS. I'm a little more hopeful now. There are a few members that have an ideal low placement.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Spring/Summer :sick: Fall/Winter :thumbup:

Ladner - Elevation: Sea Level

Wx Station: https://tempestwx.com/station/41362/grid
Top
User avatar
Monty
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4575
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:56 pm
Has thanked: 959 times
Been thanked: 9576 times

Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:51 pm And here is the GEPS. I'm a little more hopeful now. There are a few members that have an ideal low placement.
The GEM looks a little more promising than the GFS. But lots of spread in both.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
Top
User avatar
Bonovox
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 6738
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:10 pm
Location: Ladner
Elevation: Sea Level
Has thanked: 4808 times
Been thanked: 15613 times

Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Monty wrote: ↑Fri Dec 18, 2020 12:02 am The GEM looks a little more promising than the GFS. But lots of spread in both.
Yeah, I got the same impression. Here is the EPS for fun.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Spring/Summer :sick: Fall/Winter :thumbup:

Ladner - Elevation: Sea Level

Wx Station: https://tempestwx.com/station/41362/grid
Top
User avatar
Hawk
Total Weather Geek
Total Weather Geek
Posts: 8636
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:45 pm
Location: Langley-Willoughby/The Similkameeeens
Elevation: 100m/950m
Has thanked: 17160 times
Been thanked: 8330 times

Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

06GFS = :lol: :lol: :lol: . Theres goes our snow buttees. Buuuuuuuuut, guess what? I will be back in the Similkameens to enjoy many snowy days over the holidays. Will send many beauty mountain pics this time :thumbup: :thumbup:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
Top
User avatar
Monty
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4575
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:56 pm
Has thanked: 959 times
Been thanked: 9576 times

Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Meh. 12z nam went way south. Still lots of uncertainty.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
Top
User avatar
Hawk
Total Weather Geek
Total Weather Geek
Posts: 8636
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:45 pm
Location: Langley-Willoughby/The Similkameeeens
Elevation: 100m/950m
Has thanked: 17160 times
Been thanked: 8330 times

Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Monty wrote: ↑Fri Dec 18, 2020 7:13 am Meh. 12z nam went way south. Still lots of uncertainty.
Nice score..i'm just hoping GFS gets it right one time. So far its like
NFS 9 GFS 0 :roll:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
Top
User avatar
PortKells
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 7726
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:08 pm
Location: Port Kells
Elevation: 78m
Has thanked: 589 times
Been thanked: 13672 times

Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Hawk wrote: ↑Fri Dec 18, 2020 7:03 am 06GFS = :lol: :lol: :lol: . Theres goes our snow buttees. Buuuuuuuuut, guess what? I will be back in the Similkameens to enjoy many snowy days over the holidays. Will send many beauty mountain pics this time :thumbup: :thumbup:
:lol:
Top
User avatar
Monty
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4575
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:56 pm
Has thanked: 959 times
Been thanked: 9576 times

Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Hawk wrote: ↑Fri Dec 18, 2020 7:03 am 06GFS = :lol: :lol: :lol: . Theres goes our snow buttees. Buuuuuuuuut, guess what? I will be back in the Similkameens to enjoy many snowy days over the holidays. Will send many beauty mountain pics this time :thumbup: :thumbup:
Pretty dry climate there. Hopefully you get some real snow of the holidays.😄
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
Top
User avatar
Monty
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4575
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:56 pm
Has thanked: 959 times
Been thanked: 9576 times

Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

I could probably make due with this but it looks a touch warm for my Vancouver friends.
2979A6CD-7B75-4C25-B02A-F643A638CBCB.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
Top
User avatar
Monty
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4575
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:56 pm
Has thanked: 959 times
Been thanked: 9576 times

Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

RGEM has the low crossing northern Vancouver island for heavy rain and wind in the south coast. I don’t put much stock in the mesoscale models at this range but track uncertainty is about the same as last night so far this morning
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
Top
hawk2
Cloud Watcher
Cloud Watcher
Posts: 122
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2020 6:54 am
Location: Langley
Elevation: 300 feet
Has thanked: 174 times
Been thanked: 85 times

Re: December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by hawk2 »

Monty wrote: ↑Fri Dec 18, 2020 7:18 am Pretty dry climate there. Hopefully you get some real snow of the holidays.😄
Yes it is but I am in an area where we got more snow and we sometimes get 6 to 12 in dumps which is nice. The best thing is it never really melts
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Southern British Columbia - Weather Discussions”