wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:17 pm
Looks like a solid +PNA on the GFS and Ens. My bet is the ECMWF comes around to this as well.
I don't trust any long range solution that far in advance, especially during a SSW. That said, trends tonight on the GEFS aren't encouraging.
But there is no reason to suspect the Euro is going to come around this solution either. My guess is we do see a cold and snowy pattern set up late month or early February at the latest. It will also likely pop up in the models with short notice.
This prolonged SSW is going to drive the models crazy. No way we can have any level of confidence in any given solution at this point, whether it be a 1969 or a 2015 pattern shown.
I should add that even though the trends in the GFS and ensembles aren't encouraging, I don't see a solid +PNA in any of the long term solutions. That said, I don't trust what those models are showing long term anyways. There certainly is a brief +PNA signal in the more believable range, but the discussions as of recent are in the long range possibilities, which clearly favour a -PNA. Whether it works out for us or not is still very much unknown at this point. You can have a -PNA and be stuck with chilly rain. Unfortunately, there are no guarantees we see arctic air and snow.
gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-1360000.png
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1360000.png
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well done Gimps.
