January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Catnip]

12z GEFS is an improvement over the 06z.

Nice to see those rising heights in the SE.

[Catnip]

Cdn Ens.

1.png

[Catnip]

12z Parallel shows the West getting fairly cold.

GFS v16 Parallel North America 850 hPa Temp Anom.gif

[Bonovox]

Cdn Ens.

And an improvement over the 00z yesterday.

[Bonovox]

12z Parallel shows the West getting fairly cold.

I'll be curious to see the performance of the parallel over the current GFS during this pattern change. It's supposed to have much better vertical resolution.

[wetcoast91]

[AbbyJr]

We are probably still seeing model variability with the SSW but the long range GFS pretty much nuked the idea of prolonged high latitude blocking

The ensembles still show major high latitude blocking. The operational is all over the place flip flopping. I don't trust it at this point.

[wetcoast91]

https://twitter.com/MMadryga/status/134 ... 58370?s=20

[Hound]

https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2021/ ... -a-decade/

[Monty]

Cdn Ens.

1.png

Would be nice to see that height anomaly migrate up closer to Alaska. Looks like NW flow to me. Not really much of a block in North Pacific. If you animate thru it you can see energy suppressing the ridge

[Monty]

EPS looks similar to the GEPS at day 15. Not much of a conduit to arctic air there.

[Catnip]

Winter cancel?

CEBA6CFA-9BE8-4AD5-9884-FB252AD5824D.png

[wetcoast91]

EPS looks similar to the GEPS at day 15. Not much of a conduit to arctic air there.

There will be obvious disappointment among many but that pattern wouldn't be too bad and deliver ample lowland snow chances. This would be very 2007-2008-like.

Any progression that was depicted previously was always going to be harder to come by.

Winter cancel?

CEBA6CFA-9BE8-4AD5-9884-FB252AD5824D.png

Oh cool...looks like the models are indicating a sudden mass extinction. I would rather take the mild rain instead.

[Monty]

The not so accurate euro weeklies also show a lack of blocking in Alaska. That SSW better throw some blocking up there or it’s a no go for arctic air.

[Monty]

There will be obvious disappointment among many but that pattern wouldn't be too bad and deliver ample lowland snow chances. This would be very 2007-2008-like.

Any progression that was depicted previously was always going to be harder to come by.

I agree with that. 2007-2008 like. Models could always be wrong too.