January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Hound]

I'm at +2 , Yahoo! Mountain Dew!

Pretty good for sunny south surrey which is always 5 C warmer than everywhere else lol!

[John]

Kamloops forecast low tonight -7
Currently -8 and falling.

Lytton forecast low tonight -5
Currently -3 and falling

Arctic air starting to invading Lytton.

It's moving south! It is coming! Not too far away now.

Great points!

[Monty]

Not to be a Debbie downer here but 90% humidity in Prince George, Williams Lake, and Quesnel, is not exactly indicative of an arctic airmass sliding south.

[Bonovox]

Pretty good video on why the models are struggling right now. Especially the EPS. All to do with incorrectly handling the MJO. Interesting stuff.

https://youtu.be/PYZLJtyX6w0

[Bonovox]

Not to be a Debbie downer here but 90% humidity in Prince George, Williams Lake, and Quesnel, is not exactly indicative of an arctic airmass sliding south.

Yeah, I'd love to jump on the Arctic express, but a 2 degree temp and dew point spread in Prince George isn't exactly earth shattering.

[Monty]

Pretty good video on why the models are struggling right now. Especially the EPS. All to do with incorrectly handling the MJO. Interesting stuff.

https://youtu.be/PYZLJtyX6w0

The MJO is a big player. I’m hopeful we see things swing in our favour as it becomes more favourable

[Bonovox]

The MJO is a big player. I’m hopeful we see things swing in our favour as it becomes more favourable

Pretty interesting in how it drives the pattern in the NPAC at times. The EPS seems to think it will emerge in phase 7, but in reality it will probably be phase 6.

[Monty]

Pretty interesting in how it drives the pattern in the NPAC at times. The EPS seems to think it will emerge in phase 7, but in reality it will probably be phase 6.

Both cool west phases. Though I think 7 is better.

[Macster]

-1.8. Coldest temp of the season....
Slow signs of winter

[AbbyJr]

Both cool west phases. Though I think 7 is better.

If the MJO moves into phase 6 or 7, I think we have a good chance of seeing at least some arctic air. -ENSO/+QBO with favourable tropical forcing should get the job done. Right now, the MJO is not in the cold phases, so its hard to get the idea 500mb pattern.

[Storm]

06z Nam is coming in hot for the LM

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Kinda dozed off there did l miss anything.?

[Storm]

Kinfa dozed off there did l miss anything.?

Foot of snow for LM

Screenshot_20210122-004215_Samsung Internet.jpg

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Foot of snow for LM
Screenshot_20210122-004215_Samsung Internet.jpg

ln your dreams, or mine.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

And the 06Z Goofius is a pile of. winter cancelled.