January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Haha gotcha. I noticed that Seattle suddenly gets in on the action too out of nowhere. Doesn’t seem likely.

Classic signature of a PSCZ. If one forms, it can easily happen.

[Typeing3]

It appears we’ve lost the NAM.

01177A69-F2C9-4E6B-A9FB-D7DA7A9EC187.png

Those totals are in line with EC's forecast.

[Hawk]

Still find it amazing how the models had this pegged and can be so accurate 14 days out, yet 1.5 days out, not much has changed > Some say mostly rain, some say mostly snow, some have minimal precip, but HAWK says this will overperform!!
YESSSSSSSSSS buttees!

Well i mean locally...the higher hills like Catnips... and Pornoman..hopefully in the HawksNest too
And Monty could get hammmmmmerd too.

[Hawk]

Wheres WP >1.5 days out. We need an update buttee!!

[Monty]

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That’s the snowiest run I’ve seen for the South Island.

[Hawk]

Nito..whats your take please?

[Monty]

Throw it out. It gives more in Victoria than here, not a chance that is happening.

I find the nam to be the worst model for low pressure tracks more than 24 hrs out. It tends to jump all over. If it’s consistent that’s one thing, but if it’s jumpy, I ignore. FWIW.

[PortKells]

Nito..whats your take please?

-5 - -10cms. First negative snow event in history.

[Monty]

The ground was already frozen when I got home at 6pm. Cold out there this evening

[Storm]

I find the nam to be the worst model for low pressure tracks more than 24 hrs out. It tends to jump all over. If it’s consistent that’s one thing, but if it’s jumpy, I ignore. FWIW.

Yeah, every single run is different, on an other note RGEM looks good.

Screenshot_20210122-194726_Samsung Internet.jpg

[wetcoast91]

2-5cm for higher hills above 150m of Metro Van. Slush below with rain near SL.

10cm E Vancouver Island, especially above 100m.

Fraser Valley....cold pool and some downsloping could really limit moisture out there. Don't want to say zero...but it could be zero.

[Vancouver]

This next event looks like it could be a North Shore special.

[Monty]

Like EC is suggesting I Think the Valley may do best Sunday night and Monday morning with a weak onshore flow and a cold unstable airmass

[Antares]

This next event looks like it could be a North Shore special.

Why do you say that?

I'm not expecting much to be honest...

[Monty]

Yeah, every single run is different, on an other note RGEM looks good.
Screenshot_20210122-194726_Samsung Internet.jpg

Rgem has been pretty steady with the track of this. Usually overdoes precip amounts but if you’re looking for low placement I’d look there before the NAM