January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Hawk]

Maybe this is as good as La Nina is going to get for us in our new climate. The Arctic air just never gets here like it used to and we are never going to have colder than normal sea surface temps in the Pacific...
I'm sure we will still get snow in some Winters but it's just going to be less likely then it's ever been before and those very snowy years are just gone


The models were showing this period to be cold and or snowy and now it just looks like it'll be mostly cold rain for the next several days

[Typeing3]

00z 3km NAM shows a relatively heavy band of rain over lower elevations of metro vancouver later this evening...slowly changes to wet snow for some around 12am thru 8am. Maybe trace accumulations of slush by morning for some.

nam3km_ref_frzn_nwus_13.png

nam3km_asnow_nwus_19.png

[wetcoast91]

Would you rather have +12C with periods of rain or +2C rain and slush?

[Typeing3]

Would you rather have +12C with periods of rain or +2C rain and slush?

i-choose-neither.jpg

[AbbyJr]

Maybe this is as good as La Nina is going to get for us in our new climate. The Arctic air just never gets here like it used to and we are never going to have colder than normal sea surface temps in the Pacific...
I'm sure we will still get snow in some Winters but it's just going to be less likely then it's ever been before and those very snowy years are just gone


The models were showing this period to be cold and or snowy and now it just looks like it'll be mostly cold rain for the next several days

I'm actually starting to wonder if ENSO neutral, weak La Nina or even El Nino is better for memorable cold and snowy events.

Some of the greatest PNW winters have been neutral-weak La Nina or weak-moderate El Nino.

Its evident that La Nina is better for colder and wetter than normal as an average but it seems that many of our best winters in terms of memorable events were either neutral-weak La Nina or a weak-moderate El Nino.

However, most of our moderate-strong La Nina winters have turned out this way. Overhyped and ended up slightly chillier then average with a few slush events and thats it.

There's also the thought that ENSO is not as much of a factor in our climate as once thought.

But seriously, -ENSO/+QBO/SSW/MJO 7... how could this not work out for us? I'm still hopeful for February given the MJO wave, assuming it goes into phase 7 as forecast.

I honestly think it was just bad luck this time around that the SSW sent the cold to the other side of the pole. Had it come down into North America, I think we would have seen a memorable cold and snowy pattern.

[AbbyJr]

GFS ensembles say we can try again for a cold snap mid February.

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-3865600.png

[SouthHillFrosty]

I'm actually starting to wonder if ENSO neutral, weak La Nina or even El Nino is better for memorable cold and snowy events.

Some of the greatest PNW winters have been neutral-weak La Nina or weak-moderate El Nino.

Its evident that La Nina is better for colder and wetter than normal as an average but it seems that many of our best winters in terms of memorable events were either neutral-weak La Nina or a weak-moderate El Nino.

However, most of our moderate-strong La Nina winters have turned out this way. Overhyped and ended up slightly chillier then average with a few slush events and thats it.

There's also the thought that ENSO is not as much of a factor in our climate as once thought.

But seriously, -ENSO/+QBO/SSW/MJO 7... how could this not work out for us? I'm still hopeful for February given the MJO wave, assuming it goes into phase 7 as forecast.

I honestly think it was just bad luck this time around that the SSW sent the cold to the other side of the pole. Had it come down into North America, I think we would have seen a memorable cold and snowy pattern.

I think we just hype up la nina's to much. We tend to get a couple smaller snowstorms and longer and cooler averages. nothing crazy cold tho. Average or weak el nino's bring the huge snowstorms or nothing at all. Tend to be bull or bust

[Hawk]

Well FWIW.. gfs has lots of snow in store for us the next 10 days or so. They showed rain here most of this event..they nailed it pretty much bang on.
Unless dare I say it actually snows overnight which would be a surprise but hey you never know.

[vanisle]

At the airport? It’s pretty far out of town. I bet there is less than that in town.

I think CR is pretty nice. And it’s not that far from the comox valley which has pretty much everything. But if you’re a city person than yea it’s pretty remote.

I agree Courtenay has everything I need, just wish the radar would reach farther up the island.

[Typeing3]

I think we just hype up la nina's to much. We tend to get a couple smaller snowstorms and longer and cooler averages. nothing crazy cold tho. Average or weak el nino's bring the huge snowstorms or nothing at all. Tend to be bull or bust

This is false. Snowstorms are a lot more common across our region under La Nina (or ENSO Neutral) conditions, going by historical records.

I recall Monty posting a chart a long time back comparing La Nina/El Nino average snowfall for Vancouver. End result indicated La Nina's were a lot more favourable to us in terms of snowfall.

[Monty]

Maybe 10cm up at Mt Finlayson?

They get moderated by the ocean pretty easy there. The malahat is probably snowier. And sometimes Shawnigan is snowier than the malahat, especially the south end

[Forrest Gump]

I agree Courtenay has everything I need, just wish the radar would reach farther up the island.

I see you're not far from Saratoga Beach , could be the nicest beach on east Vancouver island.

[Hughc0rne]

Abby special so far tonight

[Heavy 254]

Last night was fun. Today was exhausting. Bah!!!!!

[vanisle]

I see you're not far from Saratoga Beach , could be the nicest beach on east Vancouver island.

Yup just 1-2km from Saratoga Beach, such a nice beach.