January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[wetcoast91]

Naturally.

#climo
#isitspringyet?

The Feb outlook may bust. GFS has slowly trended towards a West Coast Ridge. Should have taken that ECMWF run more seriously.

[Monty]

Yeah, give me an ENSO neutral winter any day.

What would you rank as the top 5 winters in the past 30 or 40 years?

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

La Ninas are over-rated imo.

Even considering that, this one has been a disappointment. They are usually not the greatest for lowland snow, but they are usually not as disgustingly torchy as this winter has been, either.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

What would you rank as the top 5 winters in the past 30 or 40 years?

Not sure about the top five, but 90, 96, 08 are my top three. I got to experience 1990 in Seattle, complete with 35 cm of snow falling in an afternoon at my house, so that certainly colors my impression of that year.

[Weather101]

It won't snow till me and hawk become friend's.

[Monty]

Couple rounds of snow on the WRF

76A9313B-4C2A-4364-AAA0-736562207CB8.gif

[Bonovox]

What would you rank as the top 5 winters in the past 30 or 40 years?

I'll give you 4 and in no particular order. 95-96, 08-09, 16-17 and 18-19. I know 3 of those were varying degrees of La Nina with 18-19 being a weak El Nino. I fully understand that La Nina stacks the odds in our favour, but that doesn't always equate to success. Human nature is to resort to recency bias and with that this winter has been and will probably end up as a steaming pile of poop. I hope I am wrong.

[Bonovox]

It won't snow till me and hawk become friend's.

Well, hurry up and become friends.

[PortKells]

The Feb outlook may bust. GFS has slowly trended towards a West Coast Ridge. Should have taken that ECMWF run more seriously.

East coast blast coming. Only one more month until 3 months of troughing and unseasonably cool weather followed by 2 months of heat waves and record breaking fires.

[Catnip]

Steady as she goes.

gfs-vancouver-ca-49n-123(1).jpeg

[Weather101]

Well, hurry up and become friends.

Okay, Hawk for the love of the forum and snow what you say ?

[Weather101]

East coast blast coming. Only one more month until 3 months of troughing and unseasonably cool weather followed by 2 months of heat waves and record breaking fires.

Couldn't of said it better myself

[Catnip]

East coast blast coming. Only one more month until 3 months of troughing and unseasonably cool weather followed by 2 months of heat waves and record breaking fires.

Thankfully the fires were not all that bad last summer. Would be nice to have a repeat of that, but I would think we need a cool/damp spring in order for that to happen.

Pick your poison I guess.

[wetcoast91]

Well, hurry up and become friends.

The models seem to have trended worse. 850mb temps at 280 Kelvin with surface temps near 2000 Celcius. It also looks like intense precip of molten rock and lava after a strong 3000km/hr southerly gust.

[Bonovox]

Thankfully the fires were not all that bad last summer. Would be nice to have a repeat of that, but I would think we need a cool/damp spring in order for that to happen.

Pick your poison I guess.

If a cool and wet spring gives us a smoke free summer, I would take that deal.