January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[tyweather]

First snow in the Netherlands after a record breaking 700 days without snow and yes, they keep on biking.

[AbbyJr]

If the euro and GEM go along with it then my mind is made up: these models only exist to mess with our minds and make us lose our marbles. The deep state is obviously pulling the strings.

Long range modelling has been so poor this winter and I'm not sure why. At this point we just have to watch the trends and focus on the ensembles. So far the ensembles still look good. I'm very interested in today's EPS run. That said, even the GFS ensembles have performed poorly this winter. It's perplexing.

Edit: 12Z GFS ensembles are warming now too. This is ridiculous.

That said, I'm still on board until we lose the EPS. Honestly, I have an incredible amount of trust for that model.

[PortKells]

Long range modelling has been so poor this winter and I'm not sure why. At this point we just have to watch the trends and focus on the ensembles. So far the ensembles still look good. I'm very interested in today's EPS run. That said, even the GFS ensembles have performed poorly this winter. It's perplexing.

Edit: 12Z GFS ensembles are warming now too. This is ridiculous.

That said, I'm still on board until we lose the EPS. Honestly, I have an incredible amount of trust for that model.

Just beyond frustrating. Infuriating is a better word. If these models weren't so bullish I wouldn't care. But its typical to lose the models this far out and get them back so im open to and hoping that is the case here. We know how this last "event" turned out though.

[wetcoast91]

Late March to Late May. Winter is coming!


Think +4C lows with maybe some slush up near Burnaby Mountain in mid April CMON!!!!

[AbbyJr]

Just beyond frustrating. Infuriating is a better word. If these models weren't so bullish I wouldn't care. But its typical to lose the models this far out and get them back so im open to and hoping that is the case here. We know how this last "event" turned out though.

To be fair, I don't think we ever had the EPS on our side for the last event.

Edit: After looking at the 12Z GFS ensembles again, they are not actually that bad. The cold is just slightly delayed... again.

[Bonovox]

I know there was a small study that showed a very small impact on model performance due to missing aircraft data. But, one has to wonder, has the impact been greater. I’m sure they’ll revisit it when all is said and done.

[PortKells]

To be fair, I don't think we ever had the EPS on our side for the last event.

Edit: After looking at the 12Z GFS ensembles again, they are not actually that bad. The cold is just slightly delayed... again.

At this point I'm going to take further delays as a sign its just not in the cards. We've been punting this thing since mid December.

[Typeing3]

I do recall a massive Feb 14 snowfall iirc 1995..that dumped about 30 cms in Richmond..but that was when our climate could still produce those kinds of snowfalls. There is not much hope John..sorry

1990 and 1995 both had significant mid Feb snowfalls across the south coast.

YVR recorded about 30cm of snow on Feb 14th, 1990 and other locations across the region had two day totals above 50cm.

[wetcoast91]

At this point I'm going to take further delays as a sign its just not in the cards. We've been punting this thing since mid December.

[Bonovox]

1990 and 1995 both had significant mid Feb snowfalls across the south coast.

YVR recorded about 30cm of snow on Feb 14th, 1990 and other locations across the region had two day totals above 50cm.

I remember the 1995 one well as our school got a snow day!

[PortKells]

Feels like one of those times where you already know what the euro is going to do.

[Catnip]

Euro!!

[Storm]

2 runs now.

GEM shifting that way with weaker heights over the Pacific and less cold too.

you-spoke-too-ltonvz.jpg

[John]

Feels like one of those times where you already know what the euro is going to do.

Yes looks good

[AbbyJr]

Euro!!

This winter event is far from over but also far from a lock.