February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Catnip]

Warming everywhere it seems.

https://twitter.com/50shadesofvan/statu ... 80833?s=21

[Lisa0527]

SCORES!!!

Screen Shot 2021-02-04 at 3.10.14 PM.png

Hmmm...some snow with a little lock it in place freezing rain on top. I’ll take that!

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I checked the data closely and it looks like today's 18z is about 2C milder than yesterday's. Not exactly what you want to see, but not enough difference to be meaningful. Tonight's 00z GFS and Euro will be telling, especially when we compare it to last night's.

At this point I'm on board with a modified arctic outbreak, at a minimum. Could be a legit arctic outbreak, but better to be cautiously optimistic given the model performance of late.

Nice to have your input Abby Sr. your sure quieter the last few years.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

BAEF251B-6847-4E0E-90B5-ABA6DA60FEA1.jpeg

What are “mountains?” — Goofus

Seriously, though, while that cold is doubtless being overstated, the exciting thing is that it is for once being called for 6 days out, not the standard 10, 14, or 16 days out.

[moonshadow0825]

Looks like Nito is onto something long term climo wise, would also help explain why we aren't getting as much snow, it's just flat out getting drier here!
average rainfall has decreased by 330ml per year in the past 120 years or about 30%



still tentatively hanging on to #teamsnow, would love to see those freezing temps here

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Why do you want an ice storm?

So I can have an ice day.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Looks like Nito is onto something long term climo wise, would also help explain why we aren't getting as much snow, it's just flat out getting drier here!
average rainfall has decreased by 330ml per year in the past 120 years or about 30%



still tentatively hanging on to #teamsnow, would love to see those freezing temps here

Note that if one does linear interpolation from about 1938 to present, that line is flat or even slopes up a bit. I wonder if that trend is merely an artifact of the reporting station moving from Downtown to Sea Island?

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

So, what do we know after the 18z? I think the short term is a lock [emphasis added]. It will get colder. How much so? Who knows. It looks dry for now, but those details will sort themselves out. After that? The Euro sends a piece of the trough into Alaska, 12z GFS digs it SW and the 18z into the Gulf of Alaska. Those details will have huge implications on how long it stays cold for. Model riding continues....

Warning: It is never too late for a last minute rug pull.

[Bonovox]

Probably won't verify, but no thanks.

[Bonovox]

Warning: It is never too late for a last minute rug pull.

Eh. I'm pretty convinced against a rug pull. And even so, who cares?

[Hawk]

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 9201996800
https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 5876409346

Wowwww..look at those sad Low mins in the Interior.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Eh. I'm pretty convinced against a rug pull. And even so, who cares?

Exactly it's to the point of who cares cold or no cold, fed up with this winter.

[Bonovox]

Exactly it's to the point of who cares cold or no cold, fed up with this winter.

I still want the cold. I'm just saying if it doesn't happen, so be it.

[Catnip]

It appears the 18z Euro has shifted things west a bit.

[Bonovox]

It appears the 18z Euro has shifted things west a bit.

Yup.