February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Monty]

It was totally dry here today. Rain shadow. 0.2mm of rain before sunrise

[Monty]

GEM is totally different. More moderate with the cold but several snowfalls later next week

[Typeing3]

Dang. The Ukmet is legit upper level cold. Below -15 to -18C.

That would sure be nice.

[Monty]

That would sure be nice.

A bit backdoor though. Tougher to tap into that good low level cold with the easterly gradients

[Monty]

My totally unscientific gut feeling is that we see a favourable blocking episode try to reset again in the second half of February.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I guess no WP. must be scared to predict this pattern.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

My totally unscientific gut feeling is that we see a favourable blocking episode try to reset again in the second half of February.

Any unscientific guess when the Knuckles will win again?

[AbbyJr]

My totally unscientific gut feeling is that we see a favourable blocking episode try to reset again in the second half of February.

Ensembles indicate this. As you can see, we have a nice ridge overtop of us and the trough in the east. We know its only a matter of time before it flips and places the ridge over the GOA and the trough over the PNW. Remember last time when the models showed a favourable blocking pattern in the long range, only to flip milder in the short range? Well as we got closer to the event, we now see the short range going back to the colder solutions originally modelled. For whatever reason, the models have no clue of the long range pattern this winter. I'll go with reverse psychology. Therefore, we want an unfavourable blocking pattern shown in the long range so that when it flips, it goes favourable. Make sense?

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-3217600.png

[Monty]

Any unscientific guess when the Knuckles will win again?

Hopefully they play Ottawa soon

[Catnip]

Euro time.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Hopefully they play Ottawa soon

[Bonovox]

Euro time.

Hopefully it trends towards the UKMET.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Euro time.

Is this WP?

[Catnip]

Hopefully it trends towards the UKMET.

Hopefully it throws up a warm finger in a certain valley.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Euro time.

I'm not ready.