June 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

[Typeing3]

The 18z GFS ensemble mean (850mb temps) now peaks at 27c on Sunday/Monday. Operational hits 32c. Suspect they'll probably end up closer to ~23c as the weekend draws closer.

ens_image (1).png

FWIW, 18z gfs shows a heat reload on days 9-11. Temps not as hot, but still rise into the low 30s inland.

[Bonovox]

Again, I'd subtract a good 4-5c from the Saturday-Sunday numbers to be more realistic... definitely knock off even more for Monday.

I hope you are right, but I am not convinced that is going to be the case. I think a blend between the Euro and GFS is probably the way to go until we get into range of the HRDPS and other mesoscale models.

[Bonovox]

Ummm, 18Z GFS for Monday. That's not happening.



I hope...

[Typeing3]

Ummm, 18Z GFS for Monday. That's not happening.



I hope...

These maps are equivalent to those crazy cold runs back in early Feb promising -20/-25c temps across the region.

Just stupid really. Subtract 10c from those numbers and that's what we'll probably end up with on monday.

[Bonovox]

These maps are equivalent to those crazy cold runs back in early Feb promising -20/-25c temps across the region.

Just stupid really. Subtract 10c from those numbers and that's what we'll probably end up with on monday.

I'm waiting for the pull back, but as we get closer and the runs stay consistent, I start to wonder....

[Bonovox]

Here is the 18Z ICON for Saturday.

[Typeing3]

Here is the 18Z ICON for Saturday.

ICON seems to be more in line with the GEM. Big temp difference on Sunday and Monday vs the GFS/ECMWF.

[Bonovox]

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 23011?s=20

[Coquitlam79]

Ummm, 18Z GFS for Monday. That's not happening.



I hope...

Like Typeing said knock 4-5c off those except for maybe Lytton or Lilloett. Still record breaking heat.

[PortKells]

ICON seems to be more in line with the GEM. Big temp difference on Sunday and Monday vs the GFS/ECMWF.

I'm curious...what's your heat limit for enjoyment vs too much? I mean when I see readings of 46 I want to jump off a cliff but I know that some seem to thrive no matter how hot.

[Bonovox]

Like Typeing said knock 4-5c off those except for maybe Lytton or Lilloett. Still record breaking heat.

I think we all understand that, but it is still startling to look at from a purely meteorological perspective. Crazy times.

[Bonovox]

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 79460?s=20

[PortKells]

46C would get us within 10 C of the ALL TIME WORLD RECORD!!! C'mon!

[Coquitlam79]

Even if he models are a bit overdone the humidex will.likely be over 40c this weekend, it's going to feel like the Philippines. Mabuhay....

[Typeing3]

I'm curious...what's your heat limit for enjoyment vs too much? I mean when I see readings of 46 I want to jump off a cliff but I know that some seem to thrive no matter how hot.

I'm good with anything up into the low 40s as long as it's a relatively dry heat.

You can count me out of any of the humid crap Southern Ontario or the SE USA experiences every summer.