June 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

[Typeing3]

Day 4 (Saturday) 500mb height anomalies

00z GFS

gfs_z500a_namer_17.png

00z GEM

gem_z500a_namer_17.png

00z ECMWF

ecmwf_z500a_namer_5.png

Day 5 (Sunday)

00z GFS

gfs_z500a_namer_21 (1).png

00z GEM

gem_z500a_namer_21 (1).png

00z ECMWF

ecmwf_z500a_namer_6 (1).png

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

E.C. is all in for Sunfay 39c for the central valley yikes. would be unreal to possibly see a 40c somewhere in the eastern valley.

[Glacier]

E.C. is all in for Sunfay 39c for the central valley yikes. would be unreal to possibly see a 40c somewhere in the eastern valley.

It's rather strange that EC has basically the exact same forecast for Lytton as Abbotsford (both peak at 39). Either the Lytton forecast is far too low or the Abbotsford forecast is far too high. Or most likely, a combination of both.

[Abby_wx]

It's rather strange that EC has basically the exact same forecast for Lytton as Abbotsford (both peak at 39). Either the Lytton forecast is far too low or the Abbotsford forecast is far too high. Or most likely, a combination of both.

I just noticed the same thing, lol.

Agreed, and I suspect Abbotsford will peak a day before Lytton.

[PortKells]

It is so incredibly strange to see people like Tim rooting for lower temperatures.

[Weatherhead]

My soccer team still hasn't cancelled practice Sunday night. Fake masculinity. "We'll deal with the heat boys!". It'll obviously get cancelled eventually, maybe after a municipality or two declares a state of emergency. I'm exaggerating obviously, although I'm curious what the threshold for heat would be to declare one.

My daughter plays fastball (she's the pitcher will do 3 of 4 innings per game) we have 2 games on Sunday. We haven't cancelled yet either but the games are normally called at the very start of the game. I won't allow her to pitch if it's to hot. Not worth the heat stroke especially since our normal league games doesn't mean much. Everyone still gets to go to the championship tourny.

[AbbyJr]

Just insane to see the Euro ensemble mean showing the extreme heat values. It looks like monthly and all time daily highs are likely to be broken in many regions. I'm starting to wonder if this upcoming heat wave may end up slightly more intense then the one in July 2009.

ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-4428000.png

[Glacier]

Just insane to see the Euro ensemble mean showing the extreme heat values. It looks like monthly and all time daily highs are likely to be broken in many regions. I'm starting to wonder if this upcoming heat wave may end up slightly more intense then the one in July 2009.

ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-4428000.png

How about comparing to the intense heatwave of July 1941 when the temperature was flirting with 40C in the NWT, and many places on Vancouver Island were well over 40C?

1941a.png

1941b.png

1941c.png

No, wait, the temperatures on the Lower Mainland weren't that extreme in 1941!

1941D.png

EDIT: Duncan, Nanaimo, and Port Alberni were all over 40C, however!

1941e.png

[VanCitySouth]

Still showing a big chunk of 40+ for Monday on the mm5

[AbbyJr]

How about comparing to the intense heatwave of July 1941 when the temperature was flirting with 40C in the NWT, and many places on Vancouver Island were well over 40C?

1941a.png
1941b.png
1941c.png

No, wait, the temperatures on the Lower Mainland weren't that extreme in 1941!

1941D.png

EDIT: Duncan, Nanaimo, and Port Alberni were all over 40C, however!

1941e.png

That was an intense heat wave as well. Thanks for sharing. However, I compared this upcoming one with July 2009 because that was when Abbotsford recorded its highest daily high, which was 38C on the 29th.

[Typeing3]

High res (4km) 12z WRF-GFS high temps on Saturday:

wa_tsfc.84.0000.gif

[VanCitySouth]

High res (4km) 12z WRF-GFS high temps on Saturday:
wa_tsfc.84.0000.gif

There's a splotch of brighter pink (96-100F) on the 4km resolution that's not on the 12km, which looks about the right spot for North Langley/Ridge Meadows. I do notice that anomalously hot readings on Wundermap are usually around that area too, but never really could tell for sure if that's just overexposure. I guess that part of the LM is just hotter. Anyone can confirm or deny for certain?

[Bonovox]

12Z Euro will not blink.

[VanCitySouth]

12Z Euro will not blink.

Big yikes

[AbbyJr]

12Z Euro will not blink.

If only we could see this type of consistency in the winter when models show historical cold.