June 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

[Typeing3]

My bet is 35 in YVR, 38-40 in the Fraser Valley and 43-45 in the usual hot spots.

Forecasting temps at YVR during a heatwave is like forecasting snow in the winter. With that NW breeze YVR will be stuck at 27-28c even if it's 35c-36c in Pitt Meadows.

Temps at YVR usually peak as winds right on the water shift to the SE usually on the last day of a heatwave or one day after temps peak inland so I'd go with 31c-32c on Monday.

[AbbyJr]

Heat warnings issued by Environment Canada.

[PortKells]

12Z EPS has 37 out of 50 members showing Abbotsford with a high of 38c or higher for Sunday. It has 28 of 50 members showing a high of 40c or higher on Monday. Let that sink in.

There almost certainly will be deaths if people/officials do not prepare now. School is in on Monday, despite no AC and portables which are essentially furnaces.

[Typeing3]

Highs on Saturday per the 18z 12km NAM. Still not in the high-res range so the resolution is relatively poor.

[Typeing3]

18z ICON

Saturday temps:

18z ICON Sat.PNG

Sunday temps:

18z ICON Sun.PNG

[wetcoast91]

12Z EPS has 37 out of 50 members showing Abbotsford with a high of 38c or higher for Sunday. It has 28 of 50 members showing a high of 40c or higher on Monday. Let that sink in.

If we had an Urban Heat Index here....Im pretty sure some street corners will measure temps near the mid 40s with pavement temps reaching in the upper 60s.

[Bby_Mtn]

Here is the EC weather summary for that record breaking July 30, 2009. As far as my personal Burnaby North station, we hit 36.1, our all time high. On that day, the low was 23.8. We hit 25.0 at 8:30 AM. 30.0 at 11:20 AM, 35.0 at 3:00 PM and the peak was reached at 6:00 PM.

AWCN11 CWVR 310044
Special weather summary for coastal British Columbia issued by
Environment Canada at 5:43 PM PDT Thursday 30 July 2009.

These are the highest temperatures ever recorded at these
Stations.

All-time daily temperature records set July 30, 2009
2009 old records
Record since
Max
Vancouver airport 34.4 34.0 July 29 2009 1937

All-time daily temperature records set July 29, 2009

Vancouver airport 34.0 33.3 Aug 9 1960 1937
Abbotsford airport 38.0 37.9 July 11 2007 1945
Chilliwack 38.2 38.0 July 11 2007
Cloverdale east 37.9 na na
Bella Coola 41.2 37.8 aug 7 1930 1895
Terrace 37.3 37.2 July 11 1951 1912

All-time daily temperature records set July 28, 2009
Gold river 41.5 38.5 July 21 2006
Comox airport 35.2 34.4 July 11 1961 1945

Daily temperature records set July 30 2009

These are the highest temperatures ever recorded on July 30th
At these stations.
Jul 30 old
Record year
Max
Vancouver airport 34.4 29.4 1965
Pitt Meadows 35.0 33.8 2003
White Rock 29.7 29.4 1965
Chilliwack 36.8 35.6 1965
Powell River airport 34.3 33.9 1965
Port Hardy airport 24.2 23.8 2000
Terrace airport 36.5 35.6 1971
Sandspit airport 25.4 24.2 1990
Burns Lake 34.1 31.7 1971
Smithers airport 36.0 34.4 1971
Dease Lake 33.4 29.4 1962

[Typeing3]

Model comparison for Saturday high temps at YVR/YXX...
18z GFS: 27c/34c ​
18z ICON: 30c/36c
18z NAM: 30c/36c
12z GEM: 27c/36c
12z ECMWF: 28c/38c

Sunday high temps at YVR/YXX...
18z GFS: 32c/39c ​
18z ICON: 34c/39c
12z GEM: 29c/40c
12z ECMWF: 30c/40c

[Roberts Creeker]

Heat warning for Sunshine Coast too. Hoping it will disappear like all the epic snow forecasts we watched fizzle at the last hour.

[Abby_wx]

I'm starting to think we may exceed the all-time record of 38C in Abbotsford. As I recall, the record prior to the 2007 heat wave was 37.8C. We broke it by 0.1C in 2007 (37.9C), and then again by the same amount in 2009 (38.0C). That's not a lot of data points, but if you wanted to engage in some dubious extrapolation, you could say we're warming by 0.1C every two years. It's been 12 years since we last broke the record, so if you were to add 0.6C you would end up with a new record of 38.6C. This, of course, assumes the air mass is otherwise very similar to the 2007 and 2009 air masses. If it truly is unprecedented, then 40C may be possible. That's the problem with trying to predict something that has never happened. You don't know if it can happen until it does.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Wow El Nito makes a rare summer appearance.

[Monty]

I generally think models are more capable in forecasting heat around here. A lot of the long range historic cold nonsense comes from terrain issues with cold air making its way through the canyons of the interior. It’s almost always a slower and moderated result than the models see.

[Glacier]

Lots of lightning right now... and that's coming with rain.

204424034_10158952931191628_7798892536813941508_n.jpg

[Canada Goose]

That's the problem with trying to predict something that has never happened. You don't know if it can happen until it does.

It looks like worse than the 2019 France *June* heat wave when the all-time record was set (46.0°C).
FYI, the previous all-time record was 43.4°C and the June record was below 42°C... Some monthly records were smashed by 5, 6 or 7°C.

It's gonna be historic, I have no doubt about it.

[LadnerWeather]

Well it seems like there’s no escaping this upcoming heatwave..it’s just a matter of how many records will be broken at this point. Aside from the dangers to humans and livestock, this could pose some serious problems for our early summer salmon runs. Chinook are already migrating up the Fraser and sockeye will be entering the river next week on their way up to the Stuart River area near Fort St. James. With such high temperatures and little relief in sight, water temperatures could really spike in the river which will not bode well for their survival on their journey home. With so many things already working against our salmon stocks, I really hope the models are overdoing the heat!