June 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

[John]

00Z NBM (National Blend of Models)

Crazy stuff

[AbbyJr]

The National Blend of Models is not backing down on the extreme heat.

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[Typeing3]

The National Blend of Models is not backing down on the extreme heat.

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I still don't think anything 38c+ will happen on Sun/Mon and ~32c-37c across the lower mainland is more realistic.

If the 00z model suite tomorrow maintains 38c-42c in the valley and eastern metro van for Sunday and Monday though...

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Reached a high of 26.2c today in south Sardis, call me sadistic but l'd love to see a 40c just to say l actually saw a 40c reading locally in my lifetime.
I've driven through Lytton afew summers ago and the car thermometer read 42c..

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

It's rather strange that EC has basically the exact same forecast for Lytton as Abbotsford (both peak at 39). Either the Lytton forecast is far too low or the Abbotsford forecast is far too high. Or most likely, a combination of both.

Ya l noticed too and thought it was odd, usually Lytton is a couple degrees higher with most summer forecasts.

[AbbyJr]

I still don't think anything 38c+ will happen on Sun/Mon and ~32c-37c across the lower mainland is more realistic.

If the 00z model suite tomorrow maintains 38c-42c in the valley and eastern metro van for Sunday and Monday though...

Environment Canada is going with 34-38C, so very similar to your prediction. Even that will still be record breaking. Also, keep in mind that the humidex will likely be in the low-mid 40's. Its going to be uncomfortably hot even if the extreme 40C+ temperatures don't verify.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

If only we could see this type of consistency in the winter when models show historical cold.

Maybe this winter we will Jr.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Not dead.

Half living though since my 2nd kid popped out. He's been an absolute terror and the heat stresses him out....you can already tell he's a winter lover.

Yeah! someone in your family that loves snow and cold you will be harassed forever. congrats all the same El Weirdo.

[PortKells]

I still don't think anything 38c+ will happen on Sun/Mon and ~32c-37c across the lower mainland is more realistic.

If the 00z model suite tomorrow maintains 38c-42c in the valley and eastern metro van for Sunday and Monday though...

I guess tomorrow is butt clenching time?

[VanCitySouth]

Forecasting temps at YVR during a heatwave is like forecasting snow in the winter. With that NW breeze YVR will be stuck at 27-28c even if it's 35c-36c in Pitt Meadows.

Temps at YVR usually peak as winds right on the water shift to the SE usually on the last day of a heatwave or one day after temps peak inland so I'd go with 31c-32c on Monday.

I have noticed that the effect has been even more pronounced since they moved that weather station in mid-2012. I actually think that's a reason why there's a now 8-year long stretch of no official 30C reading at YVR (2nd longest such stretch on record I believe). It would genuinely not surprise me if on Sunday/Monday, YVR gets stuck just under 30, while both Pitt Meadows and Abbotsford break all-time records.

[Typeing3]

FWIW the 00z GEM still looks relatively hot on Tuesday. Onshore push is delayed as the low remains offshore to the SW and the ridge doesn't push to the E right away.

[AbbyJr]

I'm starting to think we may exceed the all-time record of 38C in Abbotsford. As I recall, the record prior to the 2007 heat wave was 37.8C. We broke it by 0.1C in 2007 (37.9C), and then again by the same amount in 2009 (38.0C). That's not a lot of data points, but if you wanted to engage in some dubious extrapolation, you could say we're warming by 0.1C every two years. It's been 12 years since we last broke the record, so if you were to add 0.6C you would end up with a new record of 38.6C. This, of course, assumes the air mass is otherwise very similar to the 2007 and 2009 air masses. If it truly is unprecedented, then 40C may be possible. That's the problem with trying to predict something that has never happened. You don't know if it can happen until it does.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

One thing I'll add is that if we do end up exceeding the all time record of 38C, June would not be the month one would expect to do it. This makes it even more memorable.

[Hound]

I admit I get excited about records being broken, but when it comes to heat, I'm out da door! I want rainfall and snowfall records to be beat, not heat! I actually dread the heat warning being issued!

We better get some thunderstorms out of this at the end!!! At least give us something fun for our suffering!

On another note, this is the busiest the forum has been since the end of winter when we had the last chance of a decent snowfall.

We are also doing better than last summer as it was dead around here for months, even during the smoke infestation.

Will there be forest fire started because of this heat? House fires? You know some nasty stuff is gonna go down. Burns Bog again? The Coq was on fire today because some asshat tossed a cigarette!

Man... at least Leighbugs is back!

[Leighbugs]

Man... at least Leighbugs is back!

"Guess who's back...back again, Bugs is back, tell a friend..." (Little bit of old school Eminem there for ya )

It's awesome too see so many of us here right now during summer! This could be an event to remember. I'm sure most people know that I LOVE hot weather. So I am definitely intrigued as to what will actually happen with this heatwave. I am excited to possibly break such a big record like the hottest temp ever recorded here but that's just the weather geek side of me talking. Logically I KNOW that heat like this can kill and have many other nasty effects. I'd never WISH for that to happen. But now since we cannot stop it from happening, I admit I'm excited about toppling such a big record in what may be a major way. That's quite exciting. What sucks is that this is going to be a multi day event. That's where the dangerous part comes in. If this were going to be a one day event, I don't think anyone would be as concerned.

If we are going to have crazy heat, I do hope we see a 40C official reading somewhere in the Lower Mainland/Fraser Valley simply for how crazy that would look in the books. Actually, if it's going to be crazy hot, then bring it. I'd actually be disappointed if someone gets to...oh, let's say 39.7C or something. If we have a real shot at 40 then we may as well actually make it there.

[AbbyJr]

Tonights 00Z GEM extends this heatwave into Wednesday.

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