June 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

[Typeing3]

Cliff Mass is basically right. Summer extremes have warmed like 0.3C in the past 150 years. When Victoria breaks the all time record by 2.5C, we can take off 0.3C because of climate change, it's still an all time record. To link this event to climate change is to give license to deniers to link extreme cold snaps to there being no climate change. Or to give license to those who say, "but look at 1936, 1941, etc. heatwaves... see fewer extremes today," which in turn creates more deniers. It only makes sense to talk about climate change after the storm has passed and emotions have died down. Only then can there be rational discussions.

It doesn't just work like that though. Sure, averages may have warmed by 0.3c but the percentage of deviation from the mean during extreme events is more important... results in extreme heat events being warmer than the average baseline as extreme temp peaks are elevated (thus being more than just 0.3c that can be attributed to climate change).

[PortKells]

I just look at the frequency of hitting heat records vs. the infrequency of hitting cold records. If you are paying attention then you will know that the discrepancy is painfully obvious. If I wasn't lazy af I would go find the graphic that lays this out. Hitting cold records these days is a landmark event, hitting heat records feels like an every other month kinda thing. And the amount of times we have seen heat records shattered rather than just barely beat...when is the last time this region shattered a cold weather record?

[John]

I just look at the frequency of hitting heat records vs. the infrequency of hitting cold records. If you are paying attention then you will know that the discrepancy is painfully obvious. If I wasn't lazy af I would go find the graphic that lays this out. Hitting cold records these days is a landmark event, hitting heat records feels like an every other month kinda thing. And the amount of times we have seen heat records shattered rather than just barely beat...when is the last time this region shattered a cold weather record?

You do have a point in that

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I just look at the frequency of hitting heat records vs. the infrequency of hitting cold records. If you are paying attention then you will know that the discrepancy is painfully obvious. If I wasn't lazy af I would go find the graphic that lays this out. Hitting cold records these days is a landmark event, hitting heat records feels like an every other month kinda thing. And the amount of times we have seen heat records shattered rather than just barely beat...when is the last time this region shattered a cold weather record?

That is in fact my preferred argument to make. It’s typically really hard to tell, when one is surrounded by the noise, if a given event is caused by climate change or not. I usually find such claims cringeworthy, in fact.

It’s just that the event that is underway is so extraordinary that I will feel compelled to make an exception if it shapes up as forecast. From the day the first settler brought an accurate thermometer there until 1941, Seattle never had a temperature above 100˚F. Never. The next one happened in 1994. Then 2009. Now there’s going to be three of them in a row, and many model runs are calling for temperatures of 110˚F or hotter! If that happens, no way is there a plausible argument that it’s still just business as normal, climate-wise.

[John]

That is in fact my preferred argument to make. It’s typically really hard to tell, when one is surrounded by the noise, if a given event is caused by climate change or not. I usually find such claims cringeworthy, in fact.

It’s just that the event that is underway is so extraordinary that I will feel compelled to make an exception if it shapes up as forecast. From the day the first settler brought an accurate thermometer there until 1941, Seattle never had a temperature above 100˚F. Never. The next one happened in 1994. Then 2009. Now there’s going to be three of them in a row, and many model runs are calling for temperatures of 110˚F or hotter! If that happens, no way is there a plausible argument that it’s still just business as normal, climate-wise.

You have a point but How did it happen in 1941? What happened in the thousands of years before that nobody knows

[arbetrader]

You have a point but How did it happen in 1941? What happened in the thousands of years before that nobody knows

Exactly. Our purview is so small when you account for actual history. Just because it didn't happen in the last 50 years doesn't mean a whole ton over thousands and thousands of years. Even prior to humans walking the earth (in the way we know it) scientists have found evidence of massive temperature shifts that happened, evidence of horrible forest files that went unchecked, lots of evidence showing temperature decades with hot temps over many years etc.

Just thinking that our time sample is pretty small to make massive world decisions over. To the tune of millions of jobs/livelihoods at stake etc.

Climate change is definitely happening, and has happened for millennia. Question is what to do about it.

[PortKells]

You have a point but How did it happen in 1941? What happened in the thousands of years before that nobody knows

Oh it's been hot as balls many times. But the climate changed incrementally over thousands of years, and the biosphere would adapt. Now having said that, there are some credible theories out there that man caused climate change has been going on for much longer than previously realized, due to the burning of forests for agriculture. However, this pales in comparison to what's happened in the last 150 years.

What's pretty amazing is how fast we came out of the "mini ice age" after the industrial revolution began in the 1800's. Its the rate of increase that matters. That's why the "climate is always changing" argument is dead on arrival every time its made. Climatologists know better than anybody that the climate is always changing, they don't need to be told that by facebook experts. They are sounding the alarm at the rate of increase and the accelerating trend we are seeing.

[John]

Oh it's been hot as balls many times. But the climate changed incrementally over thousands of years, and the biosphere would adapt. Now having said that, there are some credible theories out there that man caused climate change has been going on for much longer than previously realized, due to the burning of forests for agriculture. However, this pales in comparison to what's happened in the last 150 years.

What's pretty amazing is how fast we came out of the "mini ice age" after the industrial revolution began in the 1800's. Its the rate of increase that matters. That's why the "climate is always changing" argument is dead on arrival every time its made. Climatologists know better than anybody that the climate is always changing, they don't need to be told that by facebook experts. They are sounding the alarm at the rate of increase and the accelerating trend we are seeing.

Climatologists are experts in climate I agree that doesn’t mean they don’t change their minds or can’t be wrong I don’t like to blindly follow so-called experts in everything, many times in history “experts” have been proven wrong later on.

There was a time people thought the earth was flat until it was proven wrong you would’ve kept following that until an expert told you it?

I like these debates the one thing I don’t like about it is that the so-called believers in climate change do not allow for any other opinion I find that dangerous
but let’s focus on the upcoming heatwave it’s gonna be interesting and it’s gonna suck at the same time

[AbbyJr]

My high was 35C today. Low of 17C. Still 32C here.

[John]

My high was 35C today. Low of 17C. Still 32C here.

She’s a hot one Abby!

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I like these debates the one thing I don’t like about it is that the so-called believers in climate change do not allow for any other opinion I find that dangerous
but let’s focus on the upcoming heatwave it’s gonna be interesting and it’s gonna suck at the same time

Has anyone so much as seriously proposed banning you from this forum for your beliefs? Anyone with actual power to do it?

You are free to believe what you want but you are not entitled automatic respect for whatever you believe. That is just a childish demand for a participation trophy under another guise.

[AbbyJr]

Can we please keep the climate change discussions in the appropriate thread? We have one dedicated to it. Here's a link. Thanks so much.

viewtopic.php?f=201&t=571

[VanCitySouth]

Has anyone so much as seriously proposed banning you from this forum for your beliefs? Anyone with actual power to do it?

You are free to believe what you want but you are not entitled automatic respect for whatever you believe. That is just a childish demand for a participation trophy under another guise.

Hold your horses, no need to go quite so far. He hasn't really said anything offensive here, let's not let an already charged debate become even less civilised.

I'm generally leery of wading in to these topics, but it's hard to deny the earth is warming much faster than at any other point we can reasonably infer from, and that there is a direct correlation with carbon. I see the mistrust from the other side as partially the fault of "alarmists" in the media/populace who do use the subject to push their own agenda/group/politics. The way to push back is not to ridicule or ostracise. Nobody has ever been internet forum'ed into a different viewpoint, after all.

[Roberts Creeker]

Can we please keep the climate change discussions in the appropriate thread? We have one dedicated to it. Here's a link. Thanks so much.

viewtopic.php?f=201&t=571

Good idea. Maybe one of the mods can move them there.

Almost got to 28 here, down to 25.6 outside, house is now hot, 29.3. I'll be glad when this is over.

[Ovonucks]

Exactly. Our purview is so small when you account for actual history. Just because it didn't happen in the last 50 years doesn't mean a whole ton over thousands and thousands of years. Even prior to humans walking the earth (in the way we know it) scientists have found evidence of massive temperature shifts that happened, evidence of horrible forest files that went unchecked, lots of evidence showing temperature decades with hot temps over many years etc.

Just thinking that our time sample is pretty small to make massive world decisions over. To the tune of millions of jobs/livelihoods at stake etc.

Climate change is definitely happening, and has happened for millennia. Question is what to do about it.

And the answer is... Something. More renewables. Less fossil fuels. Sorry Alberta, time to move away from oil. The losing jobs argument is such BS. Train those currently in the oil field to work in solar, or wind. If they don't want to learn? Too bad.