August 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

[Bonovox]

Decent trends.

[Bonovox]

Decent trends.

[PortKells]

Decent trends.

It is weird how these things fade in the medium range only to sort of re appear a couple days out. Does anybody know why this is? I've seen it happen a million times and still fall for it every time. Same thing with snow in the winter.

[Roberts Creeker]

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/stat ... 82305?s=21

A good start to winter dreaming and wishing.

Cooler and smokier here this morning. 21.2 outside, it's nice

[Bonovox]

It is weird how these things fade in the medium range only to sort of re appear a couple days out. Does anybody know why this is? I've seen it happen a million times and still fall for it every time. Same thing with snow in the winter.

Normal model volatility I think. Lots of noise to wade through when you are 5+ days out. The hurricane in the Eastern Pacific is probably not helping matters, but I don't know.

[Bonovox]

Normal model volatility I think. Lots of noise to wade through when you are 5+ days out. The hurricane in the Eastern Pacific is probably not helping matters, but I don't know.

There is also a pretty dramatic fall in verification scores once you go from 5 to 8 days.

[PortKells]

Normal model volatility I think. Lots of noise to wade through when you are 5+ days out. The hurricane in the Eastern Pacific is probably not helping matters, but I don't know.

Very muted torching on the GFS. I'm liking this. The GEM is half decent but a little more torchy.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/stat ... 82305?s=21

The “where” part is trivially obvious. East of the Rockies. As always.

[Bonovox]

Very muted torching on the GFS. I'm liking this. The GEM is half decent but a little more torchy.

Yeah, the 00Z Euro was still pretty warm right through to the end, but I hope Summer is done tormenting us.

[AbbyJr]

Yeah, the 00Z Euro was still pretty warm right through to the end, but I hope Summer is done tormenting us.

My guess is one more heat wave either this month or early in September. That said, I have an incredibly good feeling about winter. I think in late November or sometime in December we will see a solid cold and or snow event.

[Catnip]

My guess is one more heat wave either this month or early in September. That said, I have an incredibly good feeling about winter. I think in late November or sometime in December we will see a solid cold and or snow event.

[Monty]

You know growing up in Vancouver, summer was memorable. Events around town, vacation get aways with no smoke it was fun.
Now it's absolutely depressing how can you get away from smoke and there's no events to enjoy anymore.

I remember you asked about gold pan park in the canyon awhile ago. My informants tell me that it was not damaged by the Lytton fire. A little pick me up for you this morning

[Monty]

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/stat ... 82305?s=21

Early winter is gonna get good. Take it to the bank

[Monty]

It is weird how these things fade in the medium range only to sort of re appear a couple days out. Does anybody know why this is? I've seen it happen a million times and still fall for it every time. Same thing with snow in the winter.

Lack of data over the pacific. We have lots of data input when the pattern is evolving upstream near Japan. Then it moves out over the pacific where we rely on ships and a few buoys. Then 3-4 days out we start getting better data as things approach Alaska or the coast. Just a theory.

[Bonovox]

Better than nothing.