October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Sat Oct 02, 2021 1:24 pm Phil and Snow Wizard are debating each other on the American forums. Welcome to the winter months. :lol:
How many times has Jim mentioned 1950 today?
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Typeing3
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Typeing3 »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: ↑Sat Oct 02, 2021 6:06 pm How many times has Jim mentioned 1950 today?
Ah yes, his annual 1950 analogue reference. Right about on time... he usually mentions it whenever we see a cool/chilly period in October. :lol:
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Hawk »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 02, 2021 4:29 pm Definitely an elevated chance of seeing a first freeze or at least a first frost a couple weeks ahead of the 1991-2020 climate normals.
Or early season snow capped NS mountains for once... instead of struggling to open by mid Dec :clap: :clap:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
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HarrisonSasquatchWx
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 02, 2021 4:29 pm Definitely an elevated chance of seeing a first freeze or at least a first frost a couple weeks ahead of the 1991-2020 climate normals.
Good call Tman best to keep the bar low save disappointment and criticism come March. :lol:
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
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AbbyJr
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by AbbyJr »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 02, 2021 7:11 pm Ah yes, his annual 1950 analogue reference. Right about on time... he usually mentions it whenever we see a cool/chilly period in October. :lol:
When was the last time a cool/chilly October has actually been followed by an epic arctic/snowy pattern in the DJF period?
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Roberts Creeker »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Sat Oct 02, 2021 10:36 pm When was the last time a cool/chilly October has actually been followed by an epic arctic/snowy pattern in the DJF period?
1950? :lol: :lol:

Another nice day here but showers have moved in tonight. Currently 11.8C which is the high of the day. :shock:
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Snow total: 1cm Dec 24, 1cm Feb 19
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Roberts Creeker wrote: ↑Sat Oct 02, 2021 10:40 pm 1950? :lol: :lol:

Another nice day here but showers have moved in tonight. Currently 11.8C which is the high of the day. :shock:
Yeah really. :lol:
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

John! :wave: :o
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Typeing3 »

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (19).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (20).png
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:typing: :type3:
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Sat Oct 02, 2021 10:36 pm When was the last time a cool/chilly October has actually been followed by an epic arctic/snowy pattern in the DJF period?
Jr. man don't forget to post your September stats. :thumbup: :wave: :clap:
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Hawk »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 03, 2021 12:18 am 00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (19).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (20).png
Whoa..this is legit chilly and wet :shock: :shock:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Hawk »

There has been many recent years where the NS peaks would barely get any snow right through Nov, nm early Oct :shock: :shock:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by AbbyJr »

The 18Z RGEM went significantly wetter for Tuesday with 50 mm for Abbotsford. Previous runs were around 20 mm. Good thing I just cleaned out my rain gauge a few days ago. :clap: :thumbup:
Screen Shot 2021-10-03 at 8.39.26 PM.png
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Sun Oct 03, 2021 8:50 pm The 18Z RGEM went significantly wetter for Tuesday with 50 mm for Abbotsford. Previous runs were around 20 mm. Good thing I just cleaned out my rain gauge a few days ago. :clap: :thumbup:

Screen Shot 2021-10-03 at 8.39.26 PM.png
Fill my pond baby. :thumbup:
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Just checked my pet wooly caterpillar, yup its gonna be a cold winter. :clap: :thumbup: :o
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