October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Monty
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Monty »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Mon Oct 18, 2021 12:11 pm ecmwf-deterministic-albertabc-mslp_anom-5141600.png
Always 10 days away. Oh wait………it’s getting closer.

I should be on the ferry ⛴ Sunday night. That’ll be fun
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
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AbbyJr
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by AbbyJr »

SouthSardiswx wrote: ↑Mon Oct 18, 2021 10:30 am How strong for the central valley Jr. man?
Less intense than western regions at face value. Probably 40-60 km/h gusts on the modelled track, but there is potential for this to be a region wide damaging windstorm cycle. Small shifts in the track can make a significant difference in wind intensity. Since the event is still in the long range, it's impossible to predict the track with exact precision, and therefore, wind intensity, and which regions see the strongest winds is still unknown. :thumbup:
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

:team: :snowwindow: :snowman:
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Typeing3
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Typeing3 »

:shock:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_swus_25.png
https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status ... 0738662400
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:typing: :type3:
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by PortKells »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 18, 2021 4:46 pm :shock:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_swus_25.png
https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status ... 0738662400
Good hopefully that windstorm beers south and brings us low snow levels instead.
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Antares
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Antares »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 18, 2021 4:46 pm :shock:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_swus_25.png
https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status ... 0738662400
All too predictable I have to say. Will be some mudslides in California.
It always snows in December in the Kootenays :clap:
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Been in the Fraser Canyon for the past few days. Fall colors here are glorious. Friend whose place I’m staying at says it’s the best in 20 years. Much less rain has been falling here in Boston Bar than in the Greater Vancouver region.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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HarrisonSasquatchWx
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 18, 2021 8:30 pm Been in the Fraser Canyon for the past few days. Fall colors here are glorious. Friend whose place I’m staying at says it’s the best in 20 years. Much less rain has been falling here in Boston Bar than in the Greater Vancouver region; today was mostly sunny.
Nice Rubes is it Yale man's place a.k.a. mountain man. :lol:
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Typeing3 »

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (16).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (17).png
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:typing: :type3:
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John
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by John »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 12:16 am 00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (16).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (17).png
Wet. Cool.
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by wetcoast91 »

October troughing

November and December ridging :thumbup:
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VanCitySouth
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by VanCitySouth »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 9:50 am October troughing

November and December deeper troughing :thumbup:
#FTFY
2025-26 season stats:
Climo :cancel: ∞ to 0.5 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 0.5 cm and TWO traces!
Peak depth: 0.5 cm (01/07/2026)
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by PortKells »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 9:50 am October troughing

November and December ridging in the GOA :thumbup:
:thumbup:
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 9:50 am October troughing

November and December ridging :thumbup:
Then January troughing and arctic outbreak. :D
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Pomoman »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: ↑Mon Oct 18, 2021 8:30 pm Been in the Fraser Canyon for the past few days. Fall colors here are glorious. Friend whose place I’m staying at says it’s the best in 20 years. Much less rain has been falling here in Boston Bar than in the Greater Vancouver region.
Yeah I’m in around Lake Country/Vernon and took a drive off the highways and man the fall colors are just unreal this year. Sunny skies, blue/green lakes, golden yellow hue to everything. One day I’ll move here…. If it doesnt all burn down first.
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Coquitlam79 »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 9:50 am October troughing

November and December ridging :thumbup:
November 1985 driest on record (and coldest) following a wet October. In 2019 we had a very dry November. What about Dec 2009 which was sunny and dry following copious amounts of rain in Nov 2009. I remember Dec 1989 was foggy with inversions around Christmas. Same with 1995, 1999, 2001. 😆 It's actually quite normal so I'd expect to see at least one decent ridging event just as long as it doesn't take over as the predominant pattern like in 00/01 or in 13/14. That's no good.
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