November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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wetcoast91
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 12:07 pm Just a general observation, but I have noticed in winters where we see many AR events often precede major snows and/or a cold snap/arctic blast.
One run shows a backdoor arctic intrusion at hour 312 with -4C 850mb temps. "This is the setup we saw in 1950!!!!"
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 12:48 pm Would honestly be pretty funny if we saw another #wintercancel scenario until February, just to see the american forum melt down in December and January... as usual. :lol:
It wouldn't be funny to me, I want my winter front loaded. :)
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Roberts Creeker
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

Power just came back on. It was off during the night and then went out again around 5 am and back on around 12:30ish.

Now it's raining...again...
:team: :flakey: :flakey:

Snow total: 1cm Dec 24, 1cm Feb 19
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MikeD86
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by MikeD86 »

Some powerful wind gusts in Abby right now.
North Sardis, Chilliwack
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Monty
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

I’m thinking some places below 1000ft could see some white stuff next week. ❄️
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
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Typeing3
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 1:08 pm One run shows a backdoor arctic intrusion at hour 312 with -4C 850mb temps. "This is the setup we saw in 1950!!!!"
Actually I think 850mb temps plunged to -6c on the 6z. ;)

"November 1985!!!!"
:typing: :type3:
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 8:25 am Lots more stronger storms and AR events too with colder SST. Northern areas in these systems will get walloped with snows. Southern areas get +12C rains.

So you mean like Vancouver vs Portland? :think: :think:

12Z GFS is really warm and rainy. Lock it in! :evilpine: :pool:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Catnip wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 11:08 am 2021 - 2008 = 13
2008 - 1996 = 12
1996 - 1985 = 11

#PATTERNlock
You must have majored in Calculus... or Stats and Probability..or was the latter Mr Nito? :roll:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-7366400.png
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Central Abbotsford
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

:team: :snowwindow: :snowman:
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:53 pm gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-7366400.png
Whoa :shock: :shock: Similkameens get buried :clap: :clap:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Strong wind gusts here. :thumbup:
Central Abbotsford
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

:team: :snowwindow: :snowman:
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:53 pm gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-7366400.png
Looks great for the snowpack above 800m. Probably won't see a melt off until spring now.

Compared to most years in recent times, we've certainly got a head start this year.
:typing: :type3:
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:18 pm Looks great for the snowpack above 800m. Probably won't see a melt off until spring now.

Compared to most years in recent times, we've certainly got a head start this year.
Pacific ocean: "Hold my beer"
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:22 pm Pacific ocean: "Hold my beer"
:thumbup:
cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png
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:typing: :type3:
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 3:01 pm Strong wind gusts here. :thumbup:
Calm here, and thinking about raining again.
:team: :flakey: :flakey:

Snow total: 1cm Dec 24, 1cm Feb 19
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