November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Leighbugs]

Just heard on Global News that what my friend said is true...cars were swept over the embankment on HWY 99. They said they don't know more than that yet.

[East Chilliwack]

Post frontal strait enhanced squalls developing right now. Rapid development of thunderstorms that could lead to heavy rain, hail, and cold core funnel clouds. Snow level could dip to 300m by 6pm.

Wet snow and ice pellets here at the moment

[Hawk]

BC, Vancouver in particular, or the Lower Mainland is so incompetent at everything, it mind numbing. Nothing will come of this, nobody will be held responsible. It's a complete joke and people should be fired for this.

Fired? Govt employees? Bahahaha. Sure. Give them a $500K handshake and they are on their way

[Typeing3]

18z GFS

Day 9.5

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_38.png

day 11:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_44 (1).png

[John]

Don’t want to make this too political but this Mike Farneworth guy minister of something doesn’t have a clue what he’s talking about pretty embarrassing.

[Hawk]

Wow that was some extremely treacherous road situations today

[Hawk]

Apparently a friend told me Allison Lake... in the Similkameens of course, got around 90mm of rain in the last ~36 hours

Thats almost all winters precip in 1.5 days

[wetcoast91]

We are now beginning to see the full extent of the damage and I don't think anyone could have foreseen this. Some rivers have never registered discharge levels to this extent...and this was a perfect storm. The summer heat, fires and drought did a number on the flora and soil...endless rain since Sept, insane snow totals last week followed by one of the most significant AR event in history.

Right now...the reality is this. Some of the major roads might take 12-24 months to rebuild and that depends on the weather. This is probably going to be a 20 bil+ catastrophe. People have died or will die and the landslides will continue.

For anyone here. Always be prepared. We have a growing population and the government has no real resources to help us in these situations. You are on your own. Ensure you have a months worth of water and non-perishable foods.

[Pomoman]

Scary stuff.
Agreed this sounds like a huge bill all around and then the likely loss of life.
Unexpectedly I did see snow flakes with the rain around 4pm when we had a quick hitting heavy shower pass by.
So snow level has definitely lowered a great deal. But seems like it will dry for a while which is good.

[Canada Goose]

Capture d’écran 2021-11-15 à 18.28.46.jpg

Capture d’écran 2021-11-15 à 18.29.13.jpg

[Hawk]

We are now beginning to see the full extent of the damage......

Thx Nito

Yes this storm was relentless. The rainfall totals were staggering and the runoff caused unbelievable damage. The Coquihalla is just a disaster and the usual drier Similkameens got pumbled. The two main towns North and South being Merritt and Princeton have basically been wiped off the map with major flooding

[Typeing3]

We are now beginning to see the full extent of the damage and I don't think anyone could have foreseen this. Some rivers have never registered discharge levels to this extent...and this was a perfect storm. The summer heat, fires and drought did a number on the flora and soil...endless rain since Sept, insane snow totals last week followed by one of the most significant AR event in history.

Right now...the reality is this. Some of the major roads might take 12-24 months to rebuild and that depends on the weather. This is probably going to be a 20 bil+ catastrophe. People have died or will die and the landslides will continue.

For anyone here. Always be prepared. We have a growing population and the government has no real resources to help us in these situations. You are on your own. Ensure you have a months worth of water and non-perishable foods.

Were river discharges not higher during the 1935 or 1948 floods? I know there was a big one in the 70s as well ('72 I think?)

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

It is surreal. Two years ago, I took a road trip with a friend and made a big loop through the Fraser Canyon and Lytton, Ashcroft, Kamloops, Merritt, Hope. First Lytton burns to the ground and now the roads we took are destroyed in multiple places.

[Typeing3]

FWIW, I've linked data for Jan 1935 below. Can't imagine what the flooding would be like today if we saw a repeat, since totals were even higher than this event. Especially with the ground frozen solid and deep low elevation snowpack.

Vancouver:
https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... pe=navLink

Capilano:
https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... pe=navLink

New Westminster: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... estminster

Buntzen Lake: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... pe=navLink

Coquitlam Lake: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... pe=navLink

Stave Falls: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... tave+falls

Alouette Lake: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... pe=navLink

[wetcoast91]

Were river discharges not higher during the 1935 or 1948 floods? I know there was a big one in the 70s as well ('72 I think?)

1935 wasnt particuarly bad along the mountains. It was an overrunning event that dropped lots of snow and then lots of rain.

The 1948 flood discussed where due to a mega melt freshet across the province. However this mostly impacted the major riverways like the Fraser River.

This AR event was particuarly impactful because it impacted many drainage basins over extended period and stressed smaller creeks and rivers to their limits. I believe the MOT designed these bridges to withstand flooding seen during the KVR construction near Othello in the 1910s.