November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
Post Reply
User avatar
Rubus_Leucodermis
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 6344
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:48 pm
Location: Vancouver
Elevation: 70 m / 230 ft
Has thanked: 4874 times
Been thanked: 12959 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

wetcoast91 wrote: Sun Nov 21, 2021 9:33 pm One unprecedented event in a given time period is not to be confused with series of unprecedented events that have occured within a year that killed large portions of forests and vegitation that led to these conditions that hastened slope and soil erosion. Extreme heat, lengthy dry spell and a very wet period in a span of few months. This should raise alarm bells.

I could forgive anyone else making this write up but Cliff Mass is a climate change denier.
T3’s point is that the AR we just experienced is not “unprecedented.” A far bigger recent signal of climate chaos, that actually is unprecedented, is how two of the three strongest bomb cyclones on record for this region happened last October. That is in addition to last June’s heat wave, of course.

So far as Cliff Mass goes, he’s hard to characterize. He’s not technically a climate change denier, but he has been less than honest in much of his activism on the subject, and very visibly opposed one significant, viable means for taking action on the issue.
Last edited by Rubus_Leucodermis on Mon Nov 22, 2021 7:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
It's called clown range for a reason.
User avatar
PortKells
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 7726
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:08 pm
Location: Port Kells
Elevation: 78m
Has thanked: 589 times
Been thanked: 13671 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

06Z goes insane I'm the long run again. Ensembles not convinced yet. The EPS seems promising but could quite easily revert to Alaskan toughing as well.
User avatar
Mattman
Weather Tracker
Weather Tracker
Posts: 286
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:13 am
Elevation: 65 M.
Has thanked: 360 times
Been thanked: 980 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Mattman »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 3:53 am T3’s point is that the AR we just experienced is not “unprecedented.” A far bigger recent signal of climate chaos, that actually is unprecedented, is how two of the three strongest bomb cyclones on record for this region happened last October. That is in addition to last June’s heat wave, of course.

So far as Cliff Mass goes, he’s hard to characterize. He’ not technically a climate change denier, but he has been less than honest in much of his activism on the subject, and very visibly opposed one significant, viable means for taking action on the issue.
Curious to know what people think was off about Cliff’s analysis. I’m glad he said the quiet parts out loud. Cliff Mass reminds me a lot of Bjorn Lomborg: both cut out the climate hysteria yet acknowledge human contributions. I think that's why you can't pin him down.

Bjorn Lomborg especially is reasonable regarding solutions. They’re devoid of the virtue signaling that all political parties now engage in when they concoct a scheme with no cost-benefit analysis. Real solutions don’t look sexy when danger isn’t imminent: bolster existing dykes, better drainage, better pumps. Not carbon taxes, nor "green energy," nor net-zero CO2 by x year, nor other harebrained schemes that merely add economic burden with no foreseeable benefit other than scratching an ideological itch.

PS I'm surprised the Coq didn't experience this kind of damage since '86. I consider that a testament to its design and construction. That is a brutal area for extreme precipitation and the reason why the KVR was closed in the early 60's.
User avatar
Hawk
Total Weather Geek
Total Weather Geek
Posts: 8630
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:45 pm
Location: Langley-Willoughby/The Similkameeeens
Elevation: 100m/950m
Has thanked: 17152 times
Been thanked: 8328 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Im just wondering with that massive rainstorm last week...would Mt Baker above 2500m have received ~10 feet of snow in 2 days? :think: :think: And also the local mtns above the same elevation..like Whistler peak etc?
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
User avatar
PortKells
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 7726
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:08 pm
Location: Port Kells
Elevation: 78m
Has thanked: 589 times
Been thanked: 13671 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Mattman wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 6:48 am Curious to know what people think was off about Cliff’s analysis. I’m glad he said the quiet parts out loud. Cliff Mass reminds me a lot of Bjorn Lomborg: both cut out the climate hysteria yet acknowledge human contributions. I think that's why you can't pin him down.

Bjorn Lomborg especially is reasonable regarding solutions. They’re devoid of the virtue signaling that all political parties now engage in when they concoct a scheme with no cost-benefit analysis. Real solutions don’t look sexy when danger isn’t imminent: bolster existing dykes, better drainage, better pumps. Not carbon taxes, nor "green energy," nor net-zero CO2 by x year, nor other harebrained schemes that merely add economic burden with no foreseeable benefit other than scratching an ideological itch.

PS I'm surprised the Coq didn't experience this kind of damage since '86. I consider that a testament to its design and construction. That is a brutal area for extreme precipitation and the reason why the KVR was closed in the early 60's.
I'm sorry but IMO your whole post contains ideology and virtue signalling. The science could not be clearer on this issue. People are more than justified to question whether this idea that climate change isn't a big deal when we see heat waves kill hundreds, fire seasons that destroy towns, real winters have become few and far between, wildlife disappearing everywhere. This isn't normal, or at least it wasn't.

Also, please don't think you are taking a true pro-economy stance. Climate change is wreaking havoc on many sectors of the economy. Forestry, tourism, insurance, fishing, you name it. Minimizing it's impacts is minimizing the struggles those industries are having. Carbon taxes are tiny compared to how bad were getting screwed over by the fossil fuel industry for one...look at gas prices these days. That's far more than just tax.

Green energy is indeed a lie in terms of maintaining our lavish first world lifestyles. cutting out unnecessary consumption would have been the only true solution back when we still had time. Green energy could be useful on a smaller community scale but like we're not flying around the world with it any time soon. And there are considerable environmental impacts making it far less green than most people know.
User avatar
AbbyJr
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 6606
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:14 pm
Location: Abbotsford
Elevation: 50m(164ft)
Has thanked: 12858 times
Been thanked: 12306 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Thankfully this is in the long range. Would be chaos on the flood plains and in the mountains if it verified. Let's hope this run is just a fluke.
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-precip_24hr_inch-8435600.png
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-precip_48hr_inch-8435600.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Central Abbotsford
50m (164ft)

2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

:team: :snowwindow: :snowman:
User avatar
PortKells
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 7726
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:08 pm
Location: Port Kells
Elevation: 78m
Has thanked: 589 times
Been thanked: 13671 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

AbbyJr wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:56 am Thankfully this is in the long range. Would be chaos on the flood plains and in the mountains if it verified. Let's hope this run is just a fluke.

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-precip_24hr_inch-8435600.png

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-precip_48hr_inch-8435600.png
Dang. That's not cool.


This run does get interesting though, again!
gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8684000.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Monty
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4575
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:56 pm
Has thanked: 959 times
Been thanked: 9576 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

ICON has a significant rainstorm for this weekend. More of a SW flow so Vancouver island, north shore and Howe sound would take the brunt of it. Thankfully the gfs lifts the front north for a time and spreads the rain around. Still worth watching.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
User avatar
Catnip
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 10709
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:01 pm
Location: Coquitlam (Mundy Park)
Elevation: 530ft
Has thanked: 12935 times
Been thanked: 24059 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Perhaps another wet period before some blocking sets up.
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2025-2026 Snowfall - ZERO.OOcm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
User avatar
Monty
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4575
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:56 pm
Has thanked: 959 times
Been thanked: 9576 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Catnip wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:03 am Perhaps another wet period before some blocking sets up.
#midDecember
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
User avatar
AbbyJr
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 6606
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:14 pm
Location: Abbotsford
Elevation: 50m(164ft)
Has thanked: 12858 times
Been thanked: 12306 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Monty wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:02 am ICON has a significant rainstorm for this weekend. More of a SW flow so Vancouver island, north shore and Howe sound would take the brunt of it. Thankfully the gfs lifts the front north for a time and spreads the rain around. Still worth watching.
Thats still around 88 mm of rain for Abbotsford on Saturday. Would cause major problems for the flooding situation if it verified.
icon-all-vancouverski-precip_24hr_inch-8090000.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Central Abbotsford
50m (164ft)

2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

:team: :snowwindow: :snowman:
User avatar
Typeing3
Weather Psycho
Weather Psycho
Posts: 14198
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 3:02 pm
Location: Coquitlam
Elevation: 25M./80Ft.
Has thanked: 26799 times
Been thanked: 28396 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

AbbyJr wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:16 am Thats still around 88 mm of rain for Abbotsford on Saturday. Would cause major problems for the flooding situation if it verified.

icon-all-vancouverski-precip_24hr_inch-8090000.png
That looks like a Coquitlam special.
:typing: :type3:
East Coquitlam
Elevation 25M (80Ft)
#MrJanuary :geek: 8-)
User avatar
Monty
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4575
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:56 pm
Has thanked: 959 times
Been thanked: 9576 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Only 16 days away
16F4D11F-4D0C-4D8C-B4C4-764545421A69.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
User avatar
Catnip
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 10709
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:01 pm
Location: Coquitlam (Mundy Park)
Elevation: 530ft
Has thanked: 12935 times
Been thanked: 24059 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Monty wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:20 am Only 16 days away

16F4D11F-4D0C-4D8C-B4C4-764545421A69.png
Let the countdown begin!!

:thumbup: :wave:
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2025-2026 Snowfall - ZERO.OOcm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
User avatar
AbbyJr
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 6606
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:14 pm
Location: Abbotsford
Elevation: 50m(164ft)
Has thanked: 12858 times
Been thanked: 12306 times

Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Catnip wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:25 am Let the countdown begin!!

:thumbup: :wave:
'Tis the season... :14clown: :14clown: :14clown:
Central Abbotsford
50m (164ft)

2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

:team: :snowwindow: :snowman:
Post Reply