November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

Thats still around 88 mm of rain for Abbotsford on Saturday. Would cause major problems for the flooding situation if it verified.

icon-all-vancouverski-precip_24hr_inch-8090000.png

I'm not so sure. They've done some amazingly quick work. This could be just a blip in the recovery. I hope so anyway.

[AbbyJr]

The 12Z GEM also shows a rainstorm next week but the mountains to the east get a lot less rain in comparison to the GFS run. Still bad news for the flooding as the brunt of the rain is focussed over the Fraser Valley.

gem-all-vancouverski-precip_24hr_inch-8435600.png

gem-all-vancouverski-precip_48hr_inch-8435600.png

[PortKells]

The trends in the last 24 hours have been outstanding. Several GFS runs in a row showing something interesting, ensembles trending better. Timing is even moving up slightly.

This will all go east of course. But it's nice to live in the dream.

[AbbyJr]

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 86091?s=20

https://twitter.com/AnthonyFarnell/stat ... 65003?s=20

[tyweather]

Cliff Mass is interesting. One one hand he believes that climate change is happening and the earth is warming. He also had a post about how our region might be a climate change haven compared to other regions. On the otherhand he looks at individual events and says that this isn't a sign of climate change and that the media is wrong. What he seems to fail to listen to is that climate change models are predicting more frequent extreme weather and this is exactly what we are experiencing lately. Sure you can look at an individual event and say this event is something that happens due to natural variability but when you look at the events tied together one can see that our region has gotten more extreme and that this is climate change manifesting itself.

I took advantage of Cypress opening on Saturday. I bet they may have to close though with the week of warm weather coming.

[Monty]

The trends in the last 24 hours have been outstanding. Several GFS runs in a row showing something interesting, ensembles trending better. Timing is even moving up slightly.

This will all go east of course. But it's nice to live in the dream.

GFS is most likely dislodging that Alaskan cold
Way to quickly. I could see an active pattern setting up in early December with good mountain snow. But I’d bet any legit continental cold in the lowlands holds off awhile longer

[PortKells]

GFS is most likely dislodging that Alaskan cold
Way to quickly. I could see an active pattern setting up in early December with good mountain snow. But I’d bet any legit continental cold in the lowlands holds off awhile longer

This is usually true. I take it as a decent sign something is coming down the road and the Alaskan vortex will break down at some point. I'd rather get it later anyways, mid December to the end of the holidays would be amazing.

[Storm]

https://twitter.com/commoditywx/status/ ... 51qJg&s=19

https://twitter.com/commoditywx/status/ ... hrJkg&s=19

[East Chilliwack]

The trends in the last 24 hours have been outstanding. Several GFS runs in a row showing something interesting, ensembles trending better. Timing is even moving up slightly.

This will all go east of course. But it's nice to live in the dream.

I agree with you. It’s more enjoyable to have something in the future to look forward to , even if it doesn’t come to fruition, than to have nothing to base your hopes on

[Typeing3]

GFS is most likely dislodging that Alaskan cold
Way to quickly. I could see an active pattern setting up in early December with good mountain snow. But I’d bet any legit continental cold in the lowlands holds off awhile longer

Hmm... maybe the Oregon forestry service is onto something using 1971-72 as an analogue. Dec '71 had that kind of progression.

[PortKells]

I agree with you. It’s more enjoyable to have something in the future to look forward to , even if it doesn’t come to fruition, than to have nothing to base your hopes on

Exactly. Remember last year, the models were bleak and it was accurate. Even if these things don't verify its still a necessary stepping stone to see them consistently within 384 hours.

[Bonovox]

Hmm... maybe the Oregon forestry service is onto something using 1971-72 as an analogue. Dec '71 had that kind of progression.

December 1971 at YVR. Pretty good.

[Typeing3]

December 1971 at YVR. Pretty good.

Lots of cold rain alternating with heavy slop throughout much of the first two thirds of the month. Followed by an arctic blast.

Some other areas at higher elevations and in the eastern suburbs actually ended up with persistent and fairly deep snowcover for most of the month into January.

[PortKells]

Ensembles unsurprisingly not buying it.

[Typeing3]

Ensembles unsurprisingly not buying it.

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (6).png