November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

This thing needs to go.

gfs_z500a_ak_1.png

[Typeing3]

BA4599CB-5A20-4DB0-8AD3-A6B0FBDE7974.jpeg

749BE2CC-4009-41CB-8932-F7A597EC7470.jpeg

Early December "warning shots".

[Catnip]

Early December "warning shots".

Warning of a repeat of 1950? or 1996? or 2008?

Sorry, I've been spending some time on the "other" forum.

[Typeing3]

This would be an interesting progression over a 24-hr period. From warm/drizzle to cold/flurries to cold/clear.

6578c107-a86c-4132-b1c3-4af45e89b83a.gif

[Typeing3]

Warning of a repeat of 1950? or 1996? or 2008?

Sorry, I've been spending some time on the "other" forum.

All three of course! With 1861-62 also included for good measure.

[Typeing3]

Backdoor!

gfs_T850_nwus_61.png

[PortKells]

We'll take that. Guaranteed the ensembles are completely different though.

[Monty]

Models are all over the map for the first week of December.

[John]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ensembleator ... 4323577860

[John]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ensembleator ... 4323577860

How accurate are these maps usually?? This would be bad one would think

[Storm]

How accurate are these maps usually?? This would be bad one would think

The other thing to watch is there's on break between the two storms and high freezing levels. Really bad.

[PortKells]

The Canadian is the model I look to for a sober second thought. I have found it to be more accurate and consistent over the years, it rarely leads us down that GFS path of fantasy outcomes. Until such point as it's obvious an event is going to occur, then suddenly you get that run last February that put us back in 1892 or whatever. But in the long range, I trust it more.

Anyways, here's what the Canadian ensemble says. Clear as day.

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_stream-9396800.png

[PortKells]

Here's the GEFS. Starts to look like cold onshore flow actually. But that's what it was showing for a bunch of runs before it reverted back to the usual.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_stream-9396800.png

[Hawk]

This would be an interesting progression over a 24-hr period. From warm/drizzle to cold/flurries to cold/clear.
6578c107-a86c-4132-b1c3-4af45e89b83a.gif

A coastal Rain to Snow event, then cold is imo the best. Its kind of like GET OUT OF HERE RAIN!!!!

[Catnip]

Here's the GEFS. Starts to look like cold onshore flow actually. But that's what it was showing for a bunch of runs before it reverted back to the usual.


gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_stream-9396800.png

Mid-Dec is the perfect time for cold onshore flow, imo. Short days, long nights, minimal radiational heating.

#surprises