November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Catnip]

Mid-Dec is the perfect time for cold onshore flow, imo. Short days, long nights, minimal radiational heating.

#surprises

Especially with the cool waters off the coast:

84A82F27-1BE0-48BA-A834-103F86193DF9.png

[PortKells]

Euro is not bad, some folks might see a flake or two. Hopefully its a sign of good things to come. That GOA trough is strong though.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-8792000.png

[Catnip]

7FF8E996-A2E1-4576-8FC5-1A9C51BFF4F4.jpeg

[Monty]

The Canadian is the model I look to for a sober second thought. I have found it to be more accurate and consistent over the years, it rarely leads us down that GFS path of fantasy outcomes. Until such point as it's obvious an event is going to occur, then suddenly you get that run last February that put us back in 1892 or whatever. But in the long range, I trust it more.

Anyways, here's what the Canadian ensemble says. Clear as day.


cmc-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_stream-9396800.png

The Canadian model is a little better than the gfs in the short term, no doubt. The GEPS is about 5 degrees colder than the GEFS for late this week. Pretty chilly trough there. Maybe a hard freeze at least

[Monty]

#MidDecember

92D72C28-8D40-4A9C-9448-D50E40587328.png

[John]

Can we all be focussed on this upcoming rain event? after the middle of next week we can move onto #teamsnow lol

[Monty]

Can we all be focussed on this upcoming rain event? after the middle of next week we can move onto #teamsnow lol

Lots of rain coming John. More on Tuesday too. Not nearly as bad as the mid month storm. Thankfully

[Catnip]

1231D84D-7FF5-42D5-9088-138777F55B4D.jpeg

[Monty]

40-120mm this weekend. 80-250mm by mid week. Not much else to say at this point. It’s gross

[Storm]

https://twitter.com/wx_washington/statu ... wzznA&s=19

[wetcoast91]

40-120mm this weekend. 80-250mm by mid week. Not much else to say at this point. It’s gross

Like I said last week.

These events are not unprecedented on their own. The intensity and frequency of these events are cause for concern.

Some runs continue to show a favorable patttern for more AR development into December as well.

[Slytyguy]

Does anybody have a link to the Niederschlag for YVR. My link through Wetterzentrale aint working for me anymore

Thanks

[PortKells]

1231D84D-7FF5-42D5-9088-138777F55B4D.jpeg

Lots of spread. I'm curious to see if the EPS agrees with that tanking signal at the end.

[Storm]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... s6DhA&s=19

[wetcoast91]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... s6DhA&s=19