November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Typeing3
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

18z GFS day 12. Mild/wet AR transitioning to cold rain/wet snow with a strong push of chilly (maritime influenced) air from the N/NW.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Rainfall from now until 4pm tomorrow.
W and S Metro Vancouver = ~25-50mm
N and E Metro Vancouver = ~50-100mm (locally more over N sections)
Fraser Valley = ~50-100mm (locally more over N sections)
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:26 pm I do think odds are better than even that most of us will see an impactful lowland snow event next month. La Niña, 1990 as an analog, hints in the models. Just too many signs to ignore.
I agree
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Next weekend looks pretty chilly per the 18z GFS. Flurries on Sunday?
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

https://mobile.twitter.com/ECCCWeatherB ... 6130784258
https://mobile.twitter.com/EmergencyInf ... 2238056448
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Brutal.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:39 pm Next weekend looks pretty chilly per the 18z GFS. Flurries on Sunday?
Yup. :shock:
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:52 pmYup. :shock:
Was good run overall past day 6. Shades of Dec 1971. 8-)
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:56 pm Was good run overall past day 6. Shades of Dec 1971. 8-)
I don't put much stock into analogs, but ever since you brought up 71-72, it fits pretty well.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

OP was still out of touch with the ensembles but there seems to be baby step improvements. Mean on the 18z doesn't spike around Dec5/6th anymore. Though there is definitely two distinct camps (both warm (around 4/5c) and cold (around -5/-6c)).
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

May as well just wash away all remnants of highway 8 at this point.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Slytyguy »

One silver lining is that our reservoirs will be topped up. Seems like it wasn't long ago there were news stories about Nestle waters in Hope taking too much of our water lol. Different context, but still kinda funny.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 4:00 pm OP was still out of touch with the ensembles but there seems to be baby step improvements. Mean on the 18z doesn't spike around Dec5/6th anymore. Though there is definitely two distinct camps (both warm (around 4/5c) and cold (around -5/-6c)).
Lots of blocking around on that run. It wouldn't take much to turn it into something good.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Raining here. 17mm.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
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