November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Bonovox
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Monty wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 4:03 pm Raining here. 17mm.
19.4mm so far here.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Bonovox wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:58 pm I don't put much stock into analogs, but ever since you brought up 71-72, it fits pretty well.
Yeah, I've noticed that too.

A few long range GFS runs have shown that mix of cold onshore flow along with a trickle of some drier/colder offshore flow that dominated for the first 2/3rds of Dec '71. Even something half as good as that month would be great.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

wetcoast91 wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 4:01 pm May as well just wash away all remnants of highway 8 at this point.
RIP Nicola valley. :cry:
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Monty wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 4:03 pm Raining here. 17mm.
Up to 28.5mm so far in northeast Coquitlam.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Typeing3 wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 4:06 pm RIP Nicola valley. :cry:
Sounds like a new landslide on Hwy 3 this afternoon. Fortunately it was closed anyways.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

The good news the rain is very under performing so far only 10 mm
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

wetcoast91 wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 11:47 am Like I said last week.

These events are not unprecedented on their own. The intensity and frequency of these events are cause for concern.

Some runs continue to show a favorable patttern for more AR development into December as well.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Abby_wx »

John wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 4:34 pm The good news the rain is very under performing so far only 10 mm
Same here only 13.2 mm.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

John wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 4:34 pm The good news the rain is very under performing so far only 10 mm
Heaviest rain for the valley was always predicted to be between now and tomorrow morning.

6pm
hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_8.png
8pm
hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_10.png
10pm
hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_12.png
12am
hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_14.png
2am
hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_16.png
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

:typing: :type3:
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

I’ve always said it but I don’t care if it gets historical cold. Would I like that? Sure we all would but just cold enough for snow is fine with me as well. Even if it’s just a few flurries I’ve learnt to appreciate that with our climate.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Weather101 wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 5:04 pm I’ve always said it but I don’t care if it gets historical cold. Would I like that? Sure we all would but just cold enough for snow is fine with me as well. Even if it’s just a few flurries I’ve learnt to appreciate that with our climate.
I care if we get historical cold... just imagine this again! :lol:
k.PNG
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Typeing3 wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 5:14 pm I care if we get historical cold... just imagine this again! :lol:
k.PNG
45 cm of snow and a high of -15..careful what you wish for lol. I would love that but I'm not sure the lower mainland could handle something like that.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Mattman »

wetcoast91 wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 4:27 pm Sounds like a new landslide on Hwy 3 this afternoon. Fortunately it was closed anyways.
I don't mind the description "landslide." If Drive BC stated "washout" on highway 3, that would be real concerning.
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Re: November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hound »

VanCitySouth wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:44 pm Do you know when this was taken Hound?
Sorry, I didn't notice the date.
But I think it was the day before the rain started moving back in.
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