November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Weather101]

12z GEM says maybe on Sunday night
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_28.png

Dude….

[AbbyJr]

I still think it's fighting a losing battle, but you never know.

#surprises

I may be too optimistic but I think we have a good chance of a classic arctic blast in December. I don't think we can rely on the range for details but I do think the are giving us a hint of what's to come winter wise.

[AbbyJr]

18z ICON is a lot wetter for the Valley

It's been consistently wetter than the other models. It seems to be an outlier at this point but I could be wrong. It does seem that other models are trending wetter so perhaps the ICON has the right idea. Time will tell.

[Typeing3]

Here it is. It's rain only.


Capture d’écran 2021-11-24 à 18.21.44.jpg

Years to add to this list if Steveston data back to 1896 is included:

Fall 1899: 437.4mm
Source: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=1899#

Fall 1903: 456.2mm
Source: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=1903#

Fall 1906: 445.1mm
Source: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... &Year=1906#

[PortKells]

I may be too optimistic but I think we have a good chance of a classic arctic blast in December. I don't think we can rely on the range for details but I do think the are giving us a hint of what's to come winter wise.

The GFS is always catching stuff first. It seems to jump the gun frequently. Happens almost every single blast I'd say.

[Hawk]

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 1820192779

I snowmobiled Thyne mountain years ago. To the peak. Dammmm the snow was deep. But that's kinda like the Coq area for precip..not really like the Simikameens
I dunno Tyler
But ya still away from the coastal zones

[Hawk]

18z ICON for Saturday.
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_39.png

Welp..kinda nice!! Let's think positive here cuz that looks like a SSS
Similkameens Snow Smasher.
Yesssss

[Storm]

https://twitter.com/fnessbc/status/1465 ... Q6p_A&s=19

[Storm]

Kristi mentioned possibly of snow on Sunday.

[Catnip]

Kristi mentioned possibly of snow on Sunday.

Welp, snow much for that now.

[Weather101]

Kristi mentioned possibly of snow on Sunday.

I actually like her but she jumps the gun a bit but hey better to warn the public now since they are horrible drivers just in case it does happen.

[Storm]

I actually like her but she jumps the gun a bit but hey better to warn the public now since they are horrible drivers just in case it does happen.

To be fair she said. STAY TUNED

[Weather101]

To be fair she said. STAY TUNED

#TeamStayTuned

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

The GFS is always catching stuff first. It seems to jump the gun frequently. Happens almost every single blast I'd say.

Wouldn't say every single one, but it has definitely been the trend in the past several years that the GFS picks up on an extreme weather event first. Often, however, it exaggerates how extreme it was. In January 2020, it was forecasting high temperatures near 0ËšF (-18ËšC) at Bellingham. Coldest highs were actually more like 19ËšF / -7ËšC. Actual blast was also of
shorter duration than the GFS originally modeled.

[Storm]

Wouldn't say every single one, but it has definitely been the trend in the past several years that the GFS picks up on an extreme weather event first. Often, however, it exaggerates how extreme it was. In January 2020, it was forecasting high temperatures near 0ËšF (-18ËšC) at Bellingham. Coldest highs were actually more like 19ËšF / -7ËšC. Actual blast was also of
shorter duration than the GFS originally modeled.

I guess I missed but how did you end up in Vancouver?