December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

[Typeing3]

Lol.


ecmwf-weeklies-c00-nw-t850_anom-2118400 (1).png

Backdoor!

[Bonovox]

Look, HRRR is on board on Saturday morning

It is.

[VanCitySouth]

By Monday morning...

The 18Z ends at hour 90.

There should still be 6 hours of snow to go on top of that, then

[Typeing3]

Snow total prediction for my place until Wed: 0.0001 cm.

I'm thinking 2-4cm for us by Wednesday.

[Canada Goose]

I'm thinking 2-4cm for us by Wednesday.

Even here in the mountains (30 m)?

[Typeing3]

Even here in the mountains (30 m)?

For now this is what I'll go with through Wed.

Metro Vancouver below 100m = 2-4cm (1-2cm coastal locales)
Metro Vancouver above 100m = 5-10cm
Fraser Valley below 100m = 4-8cm
Fraser Valley above 100m = 10-15cm

[PortKells]

Cancel schools on Monday!

[PortKells]

It is.

Wow.

[VanCitySouth]

NWS write-up has been nudged in the direction of winter. Those guys are typically pretty conservative because they don't want to yo-yo the public, so what they say over the next day of write-ups will be key.

[Hawk]

For now this is what I'll go with through Wed.

Metro Vancouver below 100m = 2-4cm (1-2cm coastal locales)
Metro Vancouver above 100m = 5-10cm
Fraser Valley below 100m = 4-8cm
Fraser Valley above 100m = 10-15cm

Fraser Valley above 100m = 10-15cm
Metro Vancouver above 100m = 5-10cm

I'm kind of both of these above in Willoughby. What do you think i will get? 10cm's ish?

[Typeing3]

FWIW, a system taking a coming out of the WNW and sinking ESE (as is shown for Sunday night - Monday) has been historically good for YVR. Concerns with this one are obviously the lack of preceding surface cold, and iffy upper level temps. If we can maintain moderate outflow and precip rates then we could conceivably see accumulations down to sea level right next to the water. I fully expect models to waver so still thinking some slush and cold rain under 100m.

[Typeing3]

Fraser Valley above 100m = 10-15cm
Metro Vancouver above 100m = 5-10cm

I'm kind of both of these above in Willoughby. What do you think i will get? 10cm's ish?

Probably around that... I'd go with 8-12cm at this point through next Wednesday.

[Typeing3]

About 2-4c below normal for the south coast. Chilly + showery/slushy into mid month. Would've preferred cold and mostly dry, but anything is better than incessant mild rain.
https://twitter.com/blizzardof96/status ... 3062961156
https://twitter.com/blizzardof96/status ... 6493121544

[AbbyJr]

Abbotsford recorded 28.2 cm of snow on December 8, 1971. Here is the 500mb pattern for that day:

dec81971.gif

Notice the lack of GOA blocking and yet close to 30 cm of snow was recorded. Here's the modelled 500mb pattern for this upcoming Monday:

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-8792000.png

Looks very similar. There was also a -PDO in 1971. My guess is that the majority of our significant NW flow snowfalls were during -PDO winters.

[Roberts Creeker]

We have 30 snow Plows… lol it doesn’t work.
We didn’t need to replace any this season so maybe that’s a good sign!!!

It sounds like a good sign I guess we're about to find out.