December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Nimbus2
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Nimbus2 »

8 cm of new snow, from yesterday evening and overnight. Just the odd flake coming down now, temp -6.1.
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IDUNCA29

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Hawk
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 28, 2021 8:49 am Starts warming up Sunday on the Coast
:blowtor: :blowtor: :blowtor:

Then :hawk: on Monday
:blowtor: :blowtor:
Image
Probably 1)model fail or 2) brief warm up then back to snow n cold.
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
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wetcoast91
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: ↑Tue Dec 28, 2021 8:52 am Models often underestimate how tenacious cold air at the surface can be, particularly for the eastern Fraser Valley. Delayed warm-up followed by a major ice storm?
We see a gradual warm up before any significant precip arrives which means any ice amounts shouldnt be concerning.
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Weather101
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

Hawk wrote: ↑Tue Dec 28, 2021 9:03 am Probably 1)model fail or 2) brief warm up then back to snow n cold.
It’s going to warm up
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Weather101
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 28, 2021 9:04 am We see a gradual warm up before any significant precip arrives which means any ice amounts shouldnt be concerning.
This is to cold I’m on team pineapples
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wetcoast91
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Weather101 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 28, 2021 9:10 am This is to cold I’m on team pineapples
Team pineapple also loses as it cools down afterwards.

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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 28, 2021 9:13 am Team pineapple also loses as it cools down afterwards.

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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 28, 2021 9:13 am Team pineapple also loses as it cools down afterwards.

Image
Cmon Nito think DRY AND WARM
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Low of -13.3c. Currently -10.9c, dp -12.0c.
:typing: :type3:
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 28, 2021 9:04 am We see a gradual warm up before any significant precip arrives which means any ice amounts shouldnt be concerning.
Not sure about that either. GFS precip maps have been terrible. Just saying.
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_18.png
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_19.png
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 28, 2021 9:04 am We see a gradual warm up before any significant precip arrives which means any ice amounts shouldnt be concerning.
Also how many time have to say to read the fine print.
https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... mLpzQ&s=19
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Abby_wx »

Low -13.4C. Never cleared out enough to maximize cooling.
:dragon:

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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Weather101 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 28, 2021 9:09 am It’s going to warm up
It sure will! The only question is the process and the timeline. Often ends up being significantly slower and messier than initially modelled.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Storm
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: ↑Tue Dec 28, 2021 9:48 am It sure will! The only question is the process and the timeline. Often ends up being significantly slower and messier than initially modelled.
With this deep cold. Models underestimate the cold.
12z today initiation.
ecmwf_T850_nwus_1.png
12z yesterday modeled.
ecmwf_T850_nwus_2.png
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Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

The same trend again.
12z today
ecmwf_T850_nwus_2-1.png
12z yesterday
ecmwf_T850_nwus_3.png
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