December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
Post Reply
User avatar
HarrisonSasquatchWx
Donator
Donator
Posts: 22658
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:37 pm
Location: Harrison Hot Springs B.C.
Has thanked: 60007 times
Been thanked: 19787 times

Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

East Chilliwack wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 8:18 am What was it they predicted for Christmas for Chilliwack? 5cm or 5-10? Anyhow we ended up with 20-25cm. Best part was they didn’t even correct throughout the day like they usually do.
Correct 5cm to 10cm, in the 3 years I've been out here there accuracy has been so so at best,
except for the 44c day and the AR events.
Snowfall l've seen more over performing than really busts, Valentines 2019 was a bust but that was region wide l recall.
Last edited by HarrisonSasquatchWx on Wed Dec 29, 2021 8:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
User avatar
Catnip
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 10709
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:01 pm
Location: Coquitlam (Mundy Park)
Elevation: 530ft
Has thanked: 12935 times
Been thanked: 24059 times

Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Ended up with -11.3 for a low.
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2025-2026 Snowfall - ZERO.OOcm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
User avatar
HarrisonSasquatchWx
Donator
Donator
Posts: 22658
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:37 pm
Location: Harrison Hot Springs B.C.
Has thanked: 60007 times
Been thanked: 19787 times

Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Currently -9c @ the pond in south Sardis, with a Cat: 2.5 (Moderate pant ripper) NE out flow on the new Sardine wind scale.
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
User avatar
Abby_wx
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 1831
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:14 pm
Location: Mission City
Elevation: 157m (515ft)
Has thanked: 8645 times
Been thanked: 4971 times

Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Abby_wx »

Monty wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 8:27 am Modest low level outflow returns Tuesday on the GFS. Highs would be below freezing.

Tough to say how far up the valley the onshore flow pushes on Sunday. Definitely Abbotsford west. Less certain as you east
Yup. Never bet against a warm-up. The key question is for how long and how much snow melt occurs. It would be nice to go into the next cold spell with some snow still left on the ground.
:dragon:

Fall/Winter 2025/26
Low min: -5.0C (Feb 20th)
Low max: 2.8C (Feb 19th)
Snowfall: 3 cm
User avatar
Monty
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4575
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:56 pm
Has thanked: 959 times
Been thanked: 9576 times

Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Monty »

12z Ukmet is very generous with available QPF tonight. Wonder if the euro will follow
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
User avatar
Rubus_Leucodermis
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 6344
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:48 pm
Location: Vancouver
Elevation: 70 m / 230 ft
Has thanked: 4874 times
Been thanked: 12961 times

Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Monty wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 8:27 am Modest low level outflow returns Tuesday on the GFS. Highs would be below freezing.

Tough to say how far up the valley the onshore flow pushes on Sunday. Definitely Abbotsford west. Less certain as you east
The question is, does that happen while at the same time the cold air at the surface refuses to scour out?
It's called clown range for a reason.
User avatar
Monty
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4575
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:56 pm
Has thanked: 959 times
Been thanked: 9576 times

Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Monty »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 9:24 am The question is, does that happen while at the same time the cold air at the surface refuses to scour out?
It’s also the GFS which is historically the most aggressive model when it comes to pushing arctic air into the bc south coast
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
arbetrader
Weather Tracker
Weather Tracker
Posts: 295
Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:16 am
Location: Abbotsford East
Elevation: 100ft
Has thanked: 174 times
Been thanked: 698 times

Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by arbetrader »

Temperature I woke up to today in sun peaks was -31 this morning. My neighbor has a weather station setup. I did the boiling water test, it was kinda cool in a nerdy kind of way lol.

On another note, as I haven't been paying attention to yxx stuff, did they actually hit -16.9? That's what the station says they reported but that seems a bit aggressive, or?

If that's truly the case, they eclipsed the November 85 record... That being said I remember Rogers cable systems reporting -18 in abbotsford Back in 85, their station was only about 2km east from the airport.
Last edited by arbetrader on Wed Dec 29, 2021 1:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.
User avatar
Monty
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 4575
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:56 pm
Has thanked: 959 times
Been thanked: 9576 times

Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Monty »

It’s the WRF but 👀
9B3EB75A-9327-4B55-BB44-2B27F038810C.gif
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
User avatar
Storm
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 7094
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:09 pm
Location: North Burnaby/Burquitlam
Has thanked: 2493 times
Been thanked: 12532 times

Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

2m temp.
ens_image-2.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
North Burnaby/Burquitlam
Elevation - 64 M./210 Feet
User avatar
Storm
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 7094
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:09 pm
Location: North Burnaby/Burquitlam
Has thanked: 2493 times
Been thanked: 12532 times

Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Storm »

12z HRDPS snowfall map, please
North Burnaby/Burquitlam
Elevation - 64 M./210 Feet
User avatar
VanCitySouth
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 3922
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:21 pm
Location: Vancouver (Langara)
Elevation: 72 m/236 ft
Has thanked: 4164 times
Been thanked: 8316 times

Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Monty wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 9:30 am It’s the WRF but 👀

9B3EB75A-9327-4B55-BB44-2B27F038810C.gif
That's actually quite similar to some other maps which have been showing an enhancement feature over SW metro
2025-26 season stats:
Climo :cancel: ∞ to 0.5 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 0.5 cm and TWO traces!
Peak depth: 0.5 cm (01/07/2026)
User avatar
Rubus_Leucodermis
Storm Chaser
Storm Chaser
Posts: 6344
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:48 pm
Location: Vancouver
Elevation: 70 m / 230 ft
Has thanked: 4874 times
Been thanked: 12961 times

Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

HRRR and HDRPS for tomorrow afternoon.
hrrr-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-0908800.png
hrdps-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-0908800.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's called clown range for a reason.
User avatar
VanCitySouth
Weather Enthusiast
Weather Enthusiast
Posts: 3922
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:21 pm
Location: Vancouver (Langara)
Elevation: 72 m/236 ft
Has thanked: 4164 times
Been thanked: 8316 times

Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 9:44 am HRRR and HDRPS for tomorrow afternoon.

hrrr-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-0908800.png
hrdps-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-0908800.png
Still upping the ante eh? The trend is our friend for this one then.
2025-26 season stats:
Climo :cancel: ∞ to 0.5 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 0.5 cm and TWO traces!
Peak depth: 0.5 cm (01/07/2026)
User avatar
LadnerWeather
Weather Nut
Weather Nut
Posts: 418
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:13 pm
Location: Tsawwassen
Elevation: Sea Level
Has thanked: 1048 times
Been thanked: 1035 times

Re: December 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by LadnerWeather »

VanCitySouth wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 9:37 am That's actually quite similar to some other maps which have been showing an enhancement feature over SW metro
Im starting to think closer to 15cm is pretty likely in many places with the higher ratios. Looking like this will be a nice event for us in western sections of the LM :thumbup:
Currently located in Tsawwassen, beside Tsawwassen Mills
Post Reply