January 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Noah9526]

Hrdps

[AbbyJr]

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 14498?s=20

[Typeing3]

I'm on #teamdry and #teamridge as I need to fix my roof and gutters.

Another way for #teamdry to score a win is by also joining #teambackdoorblast, featuring warming downsloping outflow winds!!

[VanCitySouth]

I choose to ignore those locales.

I kid. As we get closer to the event I think the models may be over doing the drying effects of the outflow. I don't think it will take long to saturate the atmosphere this evening. My 2 cents anyway.

I agree. There is a bit of a knee-jerk of pessimism here which is not fully supported by evidence. I never believed 20-30+ cm anyway, so this is just a cutback to reality. Anywho, HRDPS and RGEM continue to show what looks like 5-8" and haven't really pared back all that much.

[Typeing3]

Hrdps

Up to 18" for the E island and up to 6" here, why am I not surprised.

[Storm]

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... QaIHg&s=19

[Antares]

To be honest there is a bit too much snow here now. Icicles are insanely long on some buildings. Gonna cause damage if it isn't dealt with.

Another big snow tomorrow and Friday with rising temps. Perfect recipe for damage.

[Typeing3]

Feb 14/15 1990

YVR 33.6cm
Nanaimo 21cm

There was once a time when the mainland got more snow than the island.

[Bonovox]

Upper levels beginning to saturate and some returns overhead. I think precip begins sooner than the models indicate.

[wetcoast91]

Up to 18" for the E island and up to 6" here, why am I not surprised.

Stronger frontogenesis = stronger drier outflow winds and strait enhancement.

Kind of saw this outcome once models advertised a stronger storm.

[Typeing3]

Upper levels beginning to saturate and some returns overhead. I think precip begins sooner than the models indicate.

Latest HRRR shows precip beginning on the mainland between 4-5pm. As of now it's already began on the W and S Island.

[Radar]

I'm on #teamdry and #teamridge as I need to fix my roof and gutters.

I’m with you on that. I’m going to start losing a $1,000 a day due to frozen ground with snow cover.

[Bonovox]

Latest HRRR shows precip beginning on the mainland between 4-5pm. As of now it's already began on the W and S Island.

About 2 hours before EC is forecasting on the latest TAF.

TAF CYVR 052040Z 0521/0624 10005KT P6SM FEW008 SCT025 OVC120 TEMPO
0521/0602 FEW008 BKN025 OVC120
FM060200 10012KT 5SM -SN BKN020 OVC040

[Typeing3]

18z GFS shows 10-15cm for Metro Vancouver, 20-30cm for the S and E island.

[AbbyJr]

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 53345?s=20