August 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Bonovox]

Need a good ol' fashioned Hawk TAT pattern lock.

[Hawk]

If it stays ridgy and hot next cupla weeks+, this will be a joke. We went from cold and troffy spring and early summer, to hot and ridgy early summer to late summer?
Wuta jooooooke. Tell em Bono!!

[Snowman]

There is lightning almost any direction I look right now, I'm loving this weather! Just hope it doesn't lead to any bad new fires.

[Forrest Gump]

If it stays ridgy and hot next cupla weeks+, this will be a joke. We went from cold and troffy spring and early summer, to hot and ridgy early summer to late summer?
Wuta jooooooke. Tell em Bono!!

What do you expect, it's called paying the piper after 10 consecutive monthly payments of rain and overcast skies with 0% interest on sunshine.

[Catnip]

The storms are starting to leave their marks. Lots of new fires popping up.

Orange = new
Red = out of control

8C7CCCC8-97CC-4639-81C1-7257D3916B27.jpeg

[Abby_wx]

At YXX (average high/average low/extreme high)

June 1951: 23.1c/8.6c/33.3c
July 1951: 24.9c/9.9c/35.6c
August 1951: 23.8c/8.7c/32.2c
September 1951: 22.8c/8.3c/33.3c

Those average lows are insane (as in, COLD!). It's hard to imagine experiencing a summer month like that nowadays. YXX hasn't been below 10C this summer since June 24th. We seem to only get a handful of lows that cool in recent summers, and more typically after Aug 15th than in either June or July.

When people think about a warming climate they generally focus on the highs, but it seems like the lows are where the majority the warming is really occurring.

[Typeing3]

If it stays ridgy and hot next cupla weeks+, this will be a joke. We went from cold and troffy spring and early summer, to hot and ridgy early summer to late summer?
Wuta jooooooke. Tell em Bono!!

Mid spring to early summer perma trough. Mid summer to early fall perma ridge.

Mid fall to early winter....

[Typeing3]

Those average lows are insane (as in, COLD!). It's hard to imagine experiencing a summer month like that nowadays. YXX hasn't been below 10C this summer since June 24th. We seem to only get a handful of lows that cool in recent summers, and more typically after Aug 15th than in either June or July.

When people think about a warming climate they generally focus on the highs, but it seems like the lows are where the majority the warming is really occurring.

Yeah, I was shocked looking at those lows, especially in comparison to the average highs.

I believe @Glacier has mentioned this many times before, that most of the warming seen on the climate averages (especially in urban areas) is extremely pronounced in average low temps, relative to average highs.

[Typeing3]

Another extremely dry streak from the archives.
June 11th to September 14th, 1896.

Total precip in that 96-day stretch: 8.1mm!

(Precip data from the old Steveston station -- closest old station to YVR)

[Typeing3]

Interestingly, in 1896, soon after that insane dry stretch, the rock really dropped in early winter. It's the only November that stacks up with the legendary 1985. At the old Steveston station, mean temps remained below freezing for two weeks, from Nov 17th to the 30th.

[Roberts Creeker]

Quite windy here tonight, most wind in several months!

19.3c in Sechelt.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (9).png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (10).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (11).png

[Typeing3]

20220813103054-8f29f4c8dfc84270da0bbf0f85878f6d424b7685.png

[Typeing3]

Next 15-16 days total precip on the ensembles

00z GEFS (GFS ensembles):

gfs-ens_apcpn_wus_64.png

00z EPS (ECMWF ensembles):

eps_apcpn_wus_60.png

00z GEPS (GEM ensembles):

gem-ens_apcpn_wus_64.png

[Hawk]

At YXX (average high/average low/extreme high)

June 1951: 23.1c/8.6c/33.3c
July 1951: 24.9c/9.9c/35.6c
August 1951: 23.8c/8.7c/32.2c
September 1951: 22.8c/8.3c/33.3c

Wait a minute...Average Low around 8-9c? No way. I would chalk this down to poor record keeping, etc. I have brought this up before(poor records).
Even it much of the dry spell was marine air, it still wouldn't drop the Lows that far. So what about the nights in that stretch when the Lows were around 15-16c? Or 12-13c? Then the monthly average ends up at 8.5? So that means there must have been several nights when the Lows were 5-6c or so?