August 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image.png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

[Typeing3]

Looks like high temps roughly between 33c and 36c today, tomorrow, and Friday per the 00z ECMWF ensemble mean. For eastern Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.

20220817105120-b5cbce6bf0025799c8af00c24e216f0de13e6e6d.png

[stuffradio]

l'm with ya bro.

Is that Egg grog?

[Hawk]

A very comfortable 15.6c at YXX this am
Once mid August hits, those L20c nights are pretty much history.

[Hawk]

Two day heatwave begins tomorrow according to the 00Z RGEM:

Wednesday at 5:00 PM:
rgem-all-vancouverski-t2m_c-0780800.png


Thursday at 5:00 PM:
rgem-all-vancouverski-t2m_c-0867200.png


Yet another heatwave is possible next week according to the 12Z Euro:

Wednesday at 5:00 PM:
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-t2m_c-1385600.png


Thursday at 5:00 PM:
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-t2m_c-1472000.png


The GFS also agrees that the heat returns next week. Here is the 18Z for Abbotsford:
gfs-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-0672800.png


There is also support for another heatwave next week on the National Blend of Models. Here is the 02Z for Abbotsford:
nbm-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-0701600.png


Note: From my experience, the National Blend of Models is usually conservative in the long range so to see it showing the low 30's 8 days out is significant. I expect it to trend warmer as we near the event, if the other models continue on the heatwave trend.

This is getting ridiculous. #rar, and hwahw..no end in site. Except once September hits

[Weather101]

This is getting ridiculous. #rar, and hwahw..no end in site. Except once September hits

Did you just rawr like a dinosaur?

[Weather101]

21
Humidity of 28

Sheeesh

[AbbyJr]

Thanks 12Z GFS

9911747F-D079-4D5B-9657-2EEB44AF8053.png

[VanCitySouth]

Thanks 12Z GFS

9911747F-D079-4D5B-9657-2EEB44AF8053.png

That graph reminds me uncomfortably of our day 16 arctic outbreaks in the winter

[Bonovox]

Already disgusting out there today.

[Typeing3]

A very comfortable 15.6c at YXX this am
Once mid August hits, those L20c nights are pretty much history.

Don't forget September 2017!

Lows at Burnaby mountain
Sep 4: 21.5c
Sep 5: 24c
Sep 6: 21c

Source: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... pe=navLink



Or September 1988!

Sep 2: 20.5c
Sep 3: 20.5c

Source: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... 88&Month=9#

[Weather101]

Thanks 12Z GFS

9911747F-D079-4D5B-9657-2EEB44AF8053.png

This is getting a tad bit ridiculous

[wetcoast91]

That graph reminds me uncomfortably of our day 16 arctic outbreaks in the winter

"Historic cold and snow 16 days away!"

"No more historic cold but it still looks really cold with lots of snow in 12 days!"

"8 days away but the models are not showing much moisture with the modified cold air coming. Could still squeeze out a snowfall and chilly temps."

"5 days away and models show a fast hitting cold airmass before a ridge builds overhead. Potential AR event 12 days away!

"Well...the ridging and AR event verified. "

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (31).png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (32).png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (33).png

[Typeing3]

20220817212325-0fef5a7d7841dbea653cea9b09e92bdb9acecb69.png