August 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Hawk]

33c here.

Meanwhile it's a chilly 25c at YVR with a moderate NW wind off the water.

My vehicle had 34c driving thru Coq/Langley later afternoon around 5pm yesterday
Sooo glad it cools off at night tho

[Hawk]

I mean just look at this Ridge
https://weather.gc.ca/satellite/satelli ... &type=1070
Ridiculous. But take note of the instability heading into the Similkameens if you're in that area today

[Hawk]

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (6).png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (7).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (8).png

Finally looking good

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I can definitely smell a little smoke this morning, and it’s hazy, too.

[Typeing3]

I can definitely smell a little smoke this morning, and it’s hazy, too.

I noticed the haze yesterday evening around sunset. If it was smoke, it was all upper level stuff; wasn't noticeable at the surface.

[Typeing3]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ensembleator ... 3794592769

https://mobile.twitter.com/edwardsantho ... 7282479105

https://mobile.twitter.com/vlad_rad/sta ... 5259302912

https://mobile.twitter.com/YKA_Weather/ ... 4666311680
https://mobile.twitter.com/YKA_Weather/ ... 1773821952
https://mobile.twitter.com/YKA_Weather/ ... 4029294593

[Abby_wx]

I don't know if today will end up much cooler than yesterday. Seems like a pretty warm start. I'm the same as yesterday so far. YXX is 1.3C ahead of yesterday. Flow is still offshore.

My low was 15.6C last night -- not bad.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

This link was posted on the American forum yesterday:

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1112839109

A peer-reviewed article focusing on the Western USA, but I'd be surprised if it does not apply to the southern part of Western Canada. (Plus smoke can easily drift across the border.)

Executive summary: The era of aggressive fire suppression radically decreased the area burned each year, so on top of climate change tending to push that value up, we have a “fire deficit” to work through. Like it or not, an annual smoke season seems to be here to stay.

[Abby_wx]

Weather summary
for British Columbia
issued by Environment Canada
at 11:29 p.m. PDT Tuesday 30 August 2022.

Discussion.

The following areas set or tied a daily maximum temperature record
on August 30, 2022 (temperature values given in degrees Celsius):

Abbotsford Area
New record of 33.7
Old record of 31.8 set in 1987
Records in this area have been kept since 1944

Cache Creek Area
New record of 36.6
Old record of 36.1 set in 1967
Records in this area have been kept since 1944

Clinton Area
New record of 31.4
Old record of 30.9 set in 2009
Records in this area have been kept since 1974

Comox Area
New record of 30.9
Old record of 30.0 set in 1944
Records in this area have been kept since 1914

Creston Area
New record of 33.5
Old record of 33.1 set in 2009
Records in this area have been kept since 1912

Kamloops Area
New record of 36.0
Old record of 35.6 set in 1967
Records in this area have been kept since 1890

Kelowna Area
New record of 34.1
Old record of 33.9 set in 1967
Records in this area have been kept since 1899

Merritt Area
New record of 35.6
Old record of 34.0 set in 2009
Records in this area have been kept since 1918

Pemberton Area
Tied record of 35.6 set in 1974
Records in this area have been kept since 1908

Sechelt Area
New record of 30.4
Old record of 27.2 set in 1974
Records in this area have been kept since 1956

Squamish Area
New record of 33.2
Old record of 28.0 set in 2003
Records in this area have been kept since 1960

Trail Area
New record of 37.1
Old record of 35.0 set in 1940
Records in this area have been kept since 1928

Williams Lake Area
New record of 34.5
Old record of 32.8 set in 1967
Records in this area have been kept since 1960

Note: the temperature records reported here have been derived from a
selection of historical stations in each geographic area that were
active during the period of record.

Please note that this summary may contain preliminary or unofficial
information and does not constitute a complete or final report.

End/PSPC

[VanCitySouth]

Excuse me what??

sudden drop.png

[Typeing3]

This link was posted on the American forum yesterday:

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1112839109

A peer-reviewed article focusing on the Western USA, but I'd be surprised if it does not apply to the southern part of Western Canada. (Plus smoke can easily drift across the border.)

Executive summary: The era of aggressive fire suppression radically decreased the area burned each year, so on top of climate change tending to push that value up, we have a “fire deficit” to work through. Like it or not, an annual smoke season seems to be here to stay.

Yep, that lines up with a few past posts here:
https://forums.bcstorms.ca/viewtopic.ph ... on#p921641

https://forums.bcstorms.ca/viewtopic.ph ... on#p602881

https://forums.bcstorms.ca/viewtopic.ph ... on#p596791

https://forums.bcstorms.ca/viewtopic.ph ... on#p594271

https://forums.bcstorms.ca/viewtopic.ph ... on#p582291



Interesting to see that article was published in 2012.

[Weather101]

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... lBuqQ&s=19

[Weather101]

Humidex at 31 gross

[Typeing3]

Humidex at 31 gross

23c with a westerly wind off the water... chilly in west Richmond and Sea Island!

[Canada Goose]

Excuse me what??


sudden drop.png

Fixed. Anyway, it's wrong again. The Tx so far is 23.8°C.

Capture d’écran 2022-08-31 à 13.47.29.jpg