November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Bonovox
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

00Z GFS.

Things get interesting Sunday night as it begins to cool off aloft.
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

00Z GFS.

Chilly by Monday morning and any moisture around would be snow down to sea level. Problem? We run out of moisture.
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Storm wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 9:04 pm Transition to snow Saturday into Sunday
Not really until late Sunday and then we are running out of moisture.

:dunno:
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Bonovox wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 9:10 pm Not really until late Sunday and then we are running out of moisture.

:dunno:
Sunday midday is a bit of a write off at the moment. Subject to change.
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Bonovox wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 9:09 pm 00Z GFS.

Chilly by Monday morning and any moisture around would be snow down to sea level. Problem? We run out of moisture.
Yes, that's in my list of El Pineapples 🍍 sayings l'm not surprised. :D plus 2c @ the pond in south Sardis.
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Storm wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 9:04 pm Transition to snow Saturday into Sunday
Bono posted the GFS. Here’s the Euro, which basically concurs. Doesn’t look very snowy to me.
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-t925-7736000.png
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Last edited by Rubus_Leucodermis on Wed Nov 02, 2022 9:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Bonovox wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 9:10 pm Not really until late Sunday and then we are running out of moisture.

:dunno:
Literally clears out by Sunday afternoon.
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

I mean, maybeee early Sunday morning? Even then, very marginal.
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Bonovox wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 9:11 pm Sunday midday is a bit of a write off at the moment. Subject to change.
Can you post this hour?
925th.us_nw-1.png
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

wetcoast91 wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 9:15 pm Literally clears out by Sunday afternoon.
I wouldn't call this clearing out. :think:
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Storm wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 9:16 pm Can you post this hour?
925th.us_nw-1.png
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Bonovox wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 9:16 pm I wouldn't call this clearing out. :think:
In El Pineapples mind it does. :lol:
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Bonovox wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 9:17 pm
That's chunky rain at best at SL...profile is way too marginal with that precip intensity.
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Climo :cancel: ∞ to 0.5 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 0.5 cm and TWO traces!
Peak depth: 0.5 cm (01/07/2026)
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

By Monday morning we are cold enough for snow right down to sea level. Just need to find some moisture. We've seen it happen before.

:hmm:
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

It’s the old story: by the time it’s finally cold enough to snow at sea level, it dries out.

Better chances of scoring later next week during an overrunning event.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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