November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Roberts Creeker]

Absolutely. I think it is a west coast weather enthusiast defense mechanism to discount any possibility of big snow potential.

Sadly true, we just need to think more positively

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Monthly average temp <1c at YVR.

1993 -- our last cold January. Stats for YVR:
Screenshot 2022-11-03 005825.png


Stats for YXX:
Screenshot 2022-11-03 010001.png

Geesh Tee that is depressing indeed, l guess over the years l'm use to any cold/snow in January's lasting a handful of day's.
That is sad our events are so short lived these winters.
I know the events we talk about were 7 plus day events those are gone it appears.

[Typeing3]

l remember that Jan. we were living near Town centre park people were skating on Lafarge lake.
It seems it stayed cold until around the 20th of January, recall a decent snowfall in mid December 92 about 10 day's before Christmas before the hammer dropped around Dec 27th or so.
Man that was a special holiday season too.

Yes 1992-93 we had cold/active NW flow with a large pool of arctic air in the interior during December; plenty of precip during the month and had a few snow dumps mid month onwards before arctic air settled in right around Christmas. Snowstorm after new year's on Jan 2/3, then two weeks of cold and dry. We had snow on the ground from mid December through early Feb. Piles lasted longer of course. Across the mainland, the Fraser hasn't frozen as much or had as much ice on it in any winter since then.

That winter was fairly similar to 2016-17, in terms of prolonged cold anomalies and did have the classic blast which 2016-17 lacked. I believe it was the only winter with a colder average temp than 2016-17 during the past 30 years in fact. That winter was about the cut-off line when prolonged chilly winters began to become much rarer, as we had many prior to that with a return period of about 2-5 years. Probably about a one in 5-8 year thing now (since then, only 2008-09, 2016-17, and 2018-19 had prolonged cold snaps -- i.e. snow on the ground for more than a month).

[Typeing3]

...Snowstorm after new year's on Jan 2/3...

On that topic, the city of Coquitlam posted a picture from the archives from this snowstorm (1993) last year:
https://twitter.com/cityofcoquitlam/sta ... 0453653510

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Yes 1992-93 we had cold/active NW flow with a large pool of arctic air in the interior during December; plenty of precip during the month and had a few snow dumps mid month onwards before arctic air settled in right around Christmas. Snowstorm after new year's on Jan 2/3, then two weeks of cold and dry. We had snow on the ground from mid December through early Feb. Piles lasted longer of course. Across the mainland, the Fraser hasn't frozen as much or had as much ice on it in any winter since then.

That winter was fairly similar to 2016-17, in terms of prolonged cold anomalies and did have the classic blast which 2016-17 lacked. I believe it was the only winter with a colder average temp than 2016-17 during the past 30 years in fact. That winter was about the cut-off line when prolonged chilly winters began to become much rarer, as we had many prior to that with a return period of about 2-5 years. Probably about a one in 5-8 year thing now (since then, only 2008-09, 2016-17, and 2018-19 had prolonged cold snaps -- i.e. snow on the ground for more than a month).

Wow great Analysis Tcool, as l mentioned alot of my events are just going off memory some l may have to look up just to correct a date especially perhaps a back to back decent winter but those are rare indeed.
Remember too with 08/09 was dynamite for cold at the beginning and snow just before Christmas but it moderated a fair bit l recall around Dec. 27th or so and of course we had that last dump around the 3rd of January or so, we were in Maple Ridge back then.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

On that topic, the city of Coquitlam posted a picture from the archives from this snowstorm (1993) last year:

Is that a Ford Mustang? bad design back in early 90's.

[Typeing3]

Wow great Analysis Tcool, as l mentioned alot of my events are just going off memory some l may have to look up just to correct a date especially perhaps a back to back decent winter but those are rare indeed.

You seem to remember individual snowfall events way better than me... always have to go back over the data to double check.

December 1992 precip data from Coquitlam:

Screenshot 2022-11-03 011723.png

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

You seem to remember individual snowfall events way better than me... always have to go back over the data to double check.

December 1992 precip data from Coquitlam:
Screenshot 2022-11-03 011723.png

Oh l've had to look up some dates but l think the ones that stand out in my mind are the events during the Christmas holiday's l guess it's a special time IMO. But a lot of it is we moved around so much l can remember were l was when we had a certain event.

[Typeing3]

Oh l've had to look up some dates but l think the ones that stand out in my mind are the events during the Christmas holiday's l guess it's a special time IMO. But a lot of it is we moved around so much l can remember were l was when we had a certain event.

You probably remembered the snowstorm on Dec 18th/19th, 1992 earlier with around 30cm. We had a bit of snow before that but not quite as significant. Was quite wet and slushy around that time but we still managed to retain the snowpack before and after despite the warmups with rain.

Bang on with the big change after the 25th; modified arctic air moved in right after Christmas accompanied by subfreezing temps and multiple rounds of light snow for a few days. Dried up with outflow around new years before a big snowstorm late on on Jan 2nd lasting through early Jan 4th. Reload of arctic air followed with extremely cold temps after. Local lakes were already mostly frozen before then but the two weeks of cold, dry weather also helped to freeze up parts of the Fraser too.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

You seem to remember individual snowfall events way better than me... always have to go back over the data to double check.

December 1992 precip data from Coquitlam:
Screenshot 2022-11-03 011723.png

Wow, yes that snowfall on December 18th into the 19th.
That was a Friday night it started l was working afternoon shift in Burnaby, l was living near Town Centre park in Coquitlam.
I made it home from work o.k. probably only 5cm accumulation by then.
I remember Mark Madygra was doing night shift at E.C. that night back when it was free to talk to a forecaster.
I remember him telling me it was going to snow for several hours.
By that Saturday afternoon when l left for work it was pouring cold rain by then with 30cm of snow on the ground, and l had to catch a bus to work.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image.png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

[Typeing3]

20221103100215-2494bbad7eb025105af6572e48c12b423e7665a4.png

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image.png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (1).png

Is that GooFarSe saying Yeah!, and the GoofyExperimentalModel saying Nah!. my first reporting of 0c at on frozen pond in south Sardis for this season.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Quick peek at some temperatures for early next week Williams Puddle Duddle drops to -23c Prince George and Fort St. John -25c and in the Southern interior The Loops and Kelowna -9c all overnight lows early next week Monday/Tuesday time frame.
Even in the Canyon Lytton doesn't go above freezing early next week.
Not bad for for early November.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Catlitter any chance of posting a pic of your new station set up outside l'm always interested in weather station set ups.
I should take over Corp.. Goosers quality check job however l can't swim as fast as he run's from back yards and jump over fences from un authorized fenced in weather stations.
It's plus 1c @ the pond in south Sardis with cloud cover moving in.