November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Bonovox
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

12Z GFS sounding. Sunday will be interesting, freezing level hovers around 370m into the evening.
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

12Z GFS.

I know it has been talked about, but let's get to the finer details. Sunday evening, it is cold enough for snow down to sea level. Will there be moisture? It's around, but not very organized.
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

12Z Euro meanwhile keeps freezing levels around 600m into Sunday evening.
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Thu Nov 03, 2022 1:09 pm 12Z GFS.

I know it has been talked about, but let's get to the finer details. Sunday evening, it is cold enough for snow down to sea level. Will there be moisture? It's around, but not very organized.
Based on our experience...we know the moisture will be very close by but no cigar. Monty could see a few cm though. Any cape values to suggest instability?
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Thu Nov 03, 2022 1:03 pm 12Z GFS sounding. Sunday will be interesting, freezing level hovers around 370m into the evening.
Snow level usually hovers roughly 200-300m below the freezing level so it will be close. We could see a few flakes in the air but nothing that really sticks unless we see a surprise low, given it will either be too warm or too dry.

Looking forward to seeing a few dry and chilly days next week! #warningshot :think:
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 03, 2022 1:21 pm Based on our experience...we know the moisture will be very close by but no cigar. Monty could see a few cm though. Any cape values to suggest instability?
Basically zero around the region.
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Shar »

Image
Roberts Creeker wrote: ↑Thu Nov 03, 2022 1:02 pm Wow! Snow! :clap: :clap: Pictures???
Not good pics, its a very old camera.
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

:alert:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Squamishweat ... 2841828352
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https://mobile.twitter.com/MMadryga/sta ... 4622610432

https://mobile.twitter.com/PeterVogel/s ... 6250800128

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSSeattle/s ... 7548916736
https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSSeattle/s ... 6795825152

https://mobile.twitter.com/SeattleWXGuy ... 4729971712
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

I know it's the NAM but hey why not. Sunday morning.
ref1km_ptype.us_nw-1.png
925th.us_nw.png
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Storm wrote: ↑Thu Nov 03, 2022 1:46 pm I know it's the NAM but hey why not. Sunday morning.
ref1km_ptype.us_nw-1.png925th.us_nw.png
NAM isnt too bad. Performed well last Dec.
Bonovox wrote: ↑Thu Nov 03, 2022 1:36 pm Basically zero around the region.
Rats.
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Weeklies...

End of Nov
weekliesendnov.png

Beginning of Dec
weeklies.png
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#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 03, 2022 1:52 pm NAM isnt too bad. Performed well last Dec.



Rats.
Noticed the NAM is is usually too aggressive with the advance of the cold air.
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

EPS is also starting to show the ridge redeveloping later into the month.

:shrug:
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by East Chilliwack »

Wet snowing here!
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Re: November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Catnip wrote: ↑Thu Nov 03, 2022 2:00 pm EPS is also starting to show the ridge redeveloping later into the month.

:shrug:

EPS.png
That actually looks like a fairly strong signal on the ensemble mean despite being 15 days away. Typically a lot more muted when it's that far out.
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