November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Catnip]

+.4

[Typeing3]

1.8c, cold rain. Maybe a bit of slush mixing in.

[Pomoman]

Man I need to sell my photography works.

[PortKells]

Man I need to sell my photography works.

Congrats on your first big W this season.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Here is what yesterday's 18Z GFS claimed this evening would be like, temperature wise:

tonight_gfs.png

Note that today's temperatures are running about 1ËšC colder than modeled.

Here's what today's 18Z run thinks Sunday morning should look like:

sunday_gfs.png

Here's where it thinks there should be precip at that time:

sunday_gfs_precip.png

I think we have to conclude that it might not just be phantom snow. #surprises

[Storm]

https://twitter.com/BCWeather101/status ... cntZg&s=19

[VanCitySouth]

Here is what yesterday's 18Z GFS claimed this evening would be like, temperature wise:

tonight_gfs.png

Note that today's temperatures are running about 1ËšC colder than modeled.

Here's what today's 18Z run thinks Sunday morning should look like:

sunday_gfs.png

Here's where it thinks there should be precip at that time:

sunday_gfs_precip.png

I think we have to conclude that it might not just be phantom snow. #surprises

I was wondering whether the highly negative PDO actually contributes to things running cooler at the surface. Anecdotally I remember the positive PDO years having marginal events which bust, and negative ones like last year we had a lot of surprises. This is, of course, and extremely uninformed amateur opinion.

[Typeing3]

I was wondering whether the highly negative PDO actually contributes to things running cooler at the surface. Anecdotally I remember the positive PDO years having marginal events which bust, and negative ones like last year we had a lot of surprises. This is, of course, and extremely uninformed amateur opinion.

Water temps off the coast make a huge difference in marginal events. Contributing factor for the decline in our average snowfall over the past few decades, imo. 5cm wet snowfalls easily turn into 5mm of cold rain in marginal setups (ex. onshore NW slider setup with little arctic air support).

[Bonovox]

And we have wet snow in Delta.

[Bonovox]

Here is what yesterday's 18Z GFS claimed this evening would be like, temperature wise:


Note that today's temperatures are running about 1ËšC colder than modeled.

Here's what today's 18Z run thinks Sunday morning should look like:

Here's where it thinks there should be precip at that time:


I think we have to conclude that it might not just be phantom snow. #surprises

GFS definitely running about 3-4c warmer at the moment.

[Storm]

Hmmm

ref1km_ptype.us_nw-1.png

925th.us_nw.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

And we have wet snow in Delta.

Still just cold rain here, and you are not much higher than I am.

[Bonovox]

Still just cold rain here, and you are not much higher than I am.

We often get some convergence over Boundary Bay that sends bands of heavier precip up the hill into North Delta.

[Bonovox]

For Storm man.

[Catnip]

Nam setup for early Sunday am.

9B930DBB-0713-4AA9-B7BC-C33377C3B3C6.png

A50B7689-C1AB-4D86-8765-12A1029DC992.png

C3F5DFDE-F845-466D-B07E-4764B31E011C.png