November 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[Canada Goose]

Capture d’écran, le 2019-11-05 à 07.36.54.jpg

[Catnip]

Pretty much all normal? Thanks for posting that Mr. Goose. Merci

[Typeing3]

12z GFS is completely dry for the next two weeks.

[Catnip]

12z GFS is completely dry for the next two weeks.

[Catnip]

Winter Opening Day is November 28, 2019

Last year they opened on Nov 22.

roundhouse2.jpg

[Catnip]

Dry

MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[Antares]

Why are you guys so worried?

[Catnip]

Why are you guys so worried?

Not really worried. I'm actually enjoying the nice weekends and evenings at the soccer and lacrosse fields.

I'd rather have the colder weather in December and January anyways.

[Glacier]

Analogs John?

1949/50. Hopefully.

Top 5 closest Sept-Oct analogs...

1) 1991 = 0.3C difference [followed by warmer winter than normal]
2) 1949 = 0.4C difference [coldest winter on record]
3) 2002 = 0.6C difference [Warmer than normal]
4) 1935 = 0.7C difference [colder than normal]
5) 1946 = 0.7C difference [colder than normal]

I'm sorry to say that there's no correlation between Sept-Oct temperatures and winter. Still, I'm holding out hope.

[Monty]

Guys, I’m worried. Not sure about what but I am.

This is starting to feel like a bit of a throw back to the old days type of year. Almost a lock for November to be the 9th drier than normal month this year for Shawnigan Lake. We used to see these extreme dry years more commonly in the first half of the last century.

695.2mm of precip at Shawnigan Lake so far this year. Just 55.6% of the yearly average.

[Typeing3]

Guys, I’m worried. Not sure about what but I am.

This is starting to feel like a bit of a throw back to the old days type of year. Almost a lock for November to be the 9th drier than normal month this year for Shawnigan Lake. We used to see these extreme dry years more commonly in the first half of the last century.

695.2mm of precip at Shawnigan Lake so far this year. Just 55.6% of the yearly average.

Lots of dry years in the 1920s and '30s. Earlier on, the 1900s and '10s were fairly wet.

[tyweather]

12Z dry, dry. Transition to split flow late. sigh. No skiing for a while. It would be nice at least if we could have the mountains below freezing in this sort of weather so at least snow could be made.

[stuffradio]

Guys, I’m worried. Not sure about what but I am.

This is starting to feel like a bit of a throw back to the old days type of year. Almost a lock for November to be the 9th drier than normal month this year for Shawnigan Lake. We used to see these extreme dry years more commonly in the first half of the last century.

695.2mm of precip at Shawnigan Lake so far this year. Just 55.6% of the yearly average.

I don't know what you mean by that.

[Monty]

I don't know what you mean by that.

Dry! The 1920s were riddled with years that saw less than 1000mm of precip here. Some years just 600-700mm. By comparison, those early 2000s drought years that have been mentioned were much wetter here. 2000-2001 were close to or above that 1000mm threshold.

It’s still early in the fall season, however. We could still have a 400mm December for all I know.

[Catnip]

Dry! The 1920s were riddled with years that saw less than 1000mm of precip here. Some years just 600-700mm. By comparison, those early 2000s drought years that have been mentioned were much wetter here. 2000-2001 were close to or above that 1000mm threshold.

It’s still early in the fall season, however. We could still have a 400CM December for all I know.