January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[Nordelian]

That is terrain bleed. Right.Screenshot_20250130_134324_Edge.jpg

Yes that is terrain bleed

There's also a bias called hydrometeor drift that overdoes precipitation forecasts near the mountains

[tyweather]

I guess with the snow coming it will be up to me to clear the bike paths
https://youtu.be/Qutf9SSf55E?si=QTHy2kXjPhmKUwQn

[PortKells]

FYI: This shows snow totals but depth would likely be zero or negative snow depth. Snow totals are all based on terrain bleed and only newbs use them.

For those newbs wondering, it is moving west at this point and still snowing.

9B69AA06-FC45-4B35-8216-E8F34B7DA710.png

[stuffradio]

Thank you everyone. I will let you know if/when I see something. Maybe I would have some sort of a button somewhere that says "Donate to maintain the cost of the site" or something.

[Hawk]

Thank you everyone. I will let you know if/when I see something. Maybe I would have some sort of a button somewhere that says "Donate to maintain the cost of the site" or something.

"Buy a coffee" is a good one..ive seen it on other sites

But like buttee said, e-transfer is prolly best so theres no company skimming our cash

[Monty]

FYI: This shows snow totals but depth would likely be zero or negative snow depth. Snow totals are all based on terrain bleed and only newbs use them.

For those newbs wondering, it is moving west at this point and still snowing.

9B69AA06-FC45-4B35-8216-E8F34B7DA710.png

Exactly. Snow that falls but doesn’t stick is recorded as a negative snow depth.

[Nordelian]

FYI: This shows snow totals but depth would likely be zero or negative snow depth. Snow totals are all based on terrain bleed and only newbs use them.

For those newbs wondering, it is moving west at this point and still snowing.

9B69AA06-FC45-4B35-8216-E8F34B7DA710.png

It's actually more like 5 cm by Sunday evening based on this RGEM run. Here's an analysis:

- the snow total you're posting has about 2-5 cm falling Friday morning for areas above 100m but that washes away as it changes to rain, so you have to subtract that from the totals map

- the majority of that snowfall comes from a random deformation band that sits over Surrey and the Langley at hour 84. It could be real but it's basically like predicting a thunderstorm at this point and may just be noise/an artefact of the unstable airmass. So I wouldn't give too much credence to most of the snow on this map.

This is why ANALYSIS is so important... Your 30 cm map is more like 5 cm most likely

The 18Z NAM is basically the same situation but has less noise, and hence is probably more accurate. And shows about 5 cm for areas above sea level by Sunday night.

[Weather101]

Thank you everyone. I will let you know if/when I see something. Maybe I would have some sort of a button somewhere that says "Donate to maintain the cost of the site" or something.

Willing to help, as well.

I was unable to access the forum for three hours. Busy time with the upcoming pattern change !!

[Weather101]

Yes, when the 2 guys running the site from Salmon Arm did human based forecasts and a synopsis. Currently on that site it's all computer generated forecasts so hard to say how accurate it is.

They were pretty good from what I remembered. Even had updates at 9:30 p.m. if warranted.

[Weather101]

Ya, that was a sad story. Both those guys have never come here. They let the forum hosting to expire down to the last 2 days and we could not reach any of them. We copied the database in order to preserve it and not lose everything, in order to relaunch THEIR forum and that made them angry, and then that site went dead and we were forced to open THIS forum. That upset them for some reason, and one guy threatened to sue us. Over why? I have no idea. Maybe because we used the memberlist from the database. But that was the only way to allow all current members to be able to sign in again without creating new accounts and all that mess. That was a rough time for all members because many accounts were dormant and we would send out emails trying to tell people where the new forum was, but most never got the email. Anyway, that was a long time ago and eventually the members that enjoyed that forum eventually found their way here. Just a bit of history and nostalgia for everyone!

If I remember correctly, we had to rush to a new forum?Some people found us a couple of months later. I remember we had a feeling that forum was dying

[Storm]

It's actually more like 5 cm by Sunday evening based on this RGEM run. Here's an analysis:

- the snow total you're posting has about 2-5 cm falling Friday morning for areas above 100m but that washes away as it changes to rain, so you have to subtract that from the totals map

- the majority of that snowfall comes from a random deformation band that sits over Surrey and the Langley at hour 84. It could be real but it's basically like predicting a thunderstorm at this point and may just be noise/an artefact of the unstable airmass. So I wouldn't give too much credence to most of the snow on this map.

This is why ANALYSIS is so important... Your 30 cm map is more like 5 cm most likely

The 18Z NAM is basically the same situation but has less noise, and hence is probably more accurate. And shows about 5 cm for areas above sea level by Sunday night.

Did you call 5 cm at best for last year snowfall?

[Storm]

18z Euro. Huhh. I can barely see snow on that map. All terrain bleed.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-8778400.thumb.png.06dd985b211d412ea3919965a090ee36.png

[Weather101]

There's no way the EC won't update the forecast at 4 p.m., right?

[PortKells]

It's actually more like 5 cm by Sunday evening based on this RGEM run. Here's an analysis:

- the snow total you're posting has about 2-5 cm falling Friday morning for areas above 100m but that washes away as it changes to rain, so you have to subtract that from the totals map

- the majority of that snowfall comes from a random deformation band that sits over Surrey and the Langley at hour 84. It could be real but it's basically like predicting a thunderstorm at this point and may just be noise/an artefact of the unstable airmass. So I wouldn't give too much credence to most of the snow on this map.

This is why ANALYSIS is so important... Your 30 cm map is more like 5 cm most likely

The 18Z NAM is basically the same situation but has less noise, and hence is probably more accurate. And shows about 5 cm for areas above sea level by Sunday night.

Luckily I’m not a pro. Just a weather enthusiast.

Btw Where were you the rest of this winter when a couple of us were trying to keep the lights by on posting hour 1040 of the weeklies?

[Hawk]

18z Euro. Huhh. I can barely see snow on that map. All terrain bleed. ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-8778400.thumb.png.06dd985b211d412ea3919965a090ee36.png

I see HawksHill kinda donuted here. Booo