November 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Catnip]

Lots of cold air to the north of us by the end of the run.

gfs_T850_namer_65.png

[Typeing3]

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 1820192779

[Typeing3]

Lots of cold air to the north of us by the end of the run.

gfs_T850_namer_65.png

Crazy cold.

Thickness down to 474 over the Yukon and NWT. PV lobe sinking south into northern BC and AB.

That type of overall pattern look is a precursor to our classic arctic blasts. Too bad its in the range.

[Typeing3]

GFS OP is once again a clear cold outlier in the Sunday-Monday-Tuesday timeframe.

ens_image (6).png

[Catnip]

GFS OP is once again a clear cold outlier in the Sunday-Monday-Tuesday timeframe.
ens_image (6).png

Sure is trying to be consistent though.

[Typeing3]

Sure is trying to be consistent though.

I still think it's fighting a losing battle, but you never know.

#surprises

[Typeing3]

18z ICON for Saturday.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_39.png

[wetcoast91]

GFS OP is once again a clear cold outlier in the Sunday-Monday-Tuesday timeframe.
ens_image (6).png

That blue member really wants to wash away SW BC into the ocean.

[Typeing3]

Below is the rainiest months ever recorded in Agassiz. With over 130 years of data, it is by far the longest running station in the lower mainland still in operation today. Because of this it's probably the best "gauge" to use for weather extremes (precip + temps) from a regional standpoint. This month is not included but I think there's a shot of finishing in the top 5.

Wettest Months in Agassiz 1889-2020.PNG

[Weather101]

Hey guys! I found someone who could help the Canucks

https://twitter.com/chuckyisreal/status ... 57600?s=21

[Weather101]

Not gonna lie this still looks like a massive outlier to me and a probably 5% chance, if that, but it's non-zero, and we gotta start somewhere.

Completely agree. Honestly my thoughts on this winter are still 300m and above will do good this year. Below that is going to be the same old rain/snow soup.

But my December 15th call still looks decent ish

[Weather101]

Dont jinx it!

I swear if we see another AR Sunday..

[Typeing3]

I swear if we see another AR Sunday..

12z GEM says maybe on Sunday night

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_28.png

[Canada Goose]

Below is the rainiest months ever recorded in Agassiz. With over 130 years of data, it is by far the longest running station in the lower mainland still in operation today. Because of this it's probably the best "gauge" to use for weather extremes (precip + temps) from a regional standpoint. This month is not included but I think there's a shot of finishing in the top 5.
Wettest Months in Agassiz 1889-2020.PNG

558.2 mm [17 hours are missing] so far in Agassiz so 1st place is sure at 100%.

BUT you have 574.4 mm in Nov. 1990 (https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... imeframe=2)

558.8 mm in Nov 06 is only for the 13 first days! https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... 6&Month=11#

[Typeing3]

558.2 mm [17 hours are missing] so far in Agassiz so 1st place is sure at 100%.

BUT you have 574.4 mm in Nov. 1990 (https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... imeframe=2)

558.8 mm in Nov 06 is only for the 13 first days! https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... 6&Month=11#

I used "Agassiz CDA" data throughout, since that station has been in continuous operation since 1889 (I think this has always been manually operated?).

"Agassiz RCS" has only been in operation since 1988 (I think this one is automatically operated?).

Also I only counted rainfall, not total precip since some months also had snow included.