AbbyJr wrote: ↑Tue Feb 03, 2026 2:06 pm For entertainment purposes only
The 12Z Euro has a decent NW flow snowfall in the clown range. No real arctic air but just a very cold polar low with an offshore North Pacific block. Looks like a surface low develops and spreads moisture over a modified arctic airmass. The timing is picture perfect as most of the moisture comes in through the evening and overnight hours, which helps maximize the cold. A very dynamic setup that was much more common here in the past.
While this solution is unlikely to verify, both the EPS and AIFS show a cold onshore flow. Unfortunately, it's a complex setup and 300hrs+ out.
Abbotsford 11.3°C
Agassiz 11.7°C
Burns Bog 11.3°C
Hope 10.4°C
Langley 11.6°C
MBY 11.0˚C
Pitt Meadows 11.2°C
Squamish 9.5°C
Vancouver Harbour 12.1°C
Vancouver YVR 9.9°C
West Vancouver 10.4°C
White Rock MSNG°C
P.S. It looks like the White Rock station has been offline for much of the day, probably not enough data for an accurate 6 hr max temp report. It has been as warm as 11.8˚C there since the station came back online.
AbbyJr wrote: ↑Tue Feb 03, 2026 2:06 pm For entertainment purposes only
The 12Z Euro has a decent NW flow snowfall in the clown range. No real arctic air but just a very cold polar low with an offshore North Pacific block. Looks like a surface low develops and spreads moisture over a modified arctic airmass. The timing is picture perfect as most of the moisture comes in through the evening and overnight hours, which helps maximize the cold. A very dynamic setup that was much more common here in the past.
While this solution is unlikely to verify, both the EPS and AIFS show a cold onshore flow. Unfortunately, it's a complex setup and 300hrs+ out.
Could be a super strong El Nino coming up. FB post from John Scheve
EL NINO BEGINS SUDDENLY AND IT COULD BE A STRONG TO SUPER ONE BY SEPTEMBER
This will not technically be an El Nino until the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) “3.4 region” in the central equatorial Pacific warms to a + 0.5 C anomaly for 3 consecutive months. That could easily happen by February - March - April so the official start will probably be March which would be a full month earlier than the earliest in the year El Niño (1982-1983) on record which formed in April 1982. The next earliest was the 1997-1998 El Niño which began in May 1997. Both those El Ninos were very strong. Our climate is rapidly devolving into chaos as g l o b a l w a r m i n g accelerates. (I space out those 2 words to reduce by ~90% the propaganda spewing trolls and bots orchestrated by Putin and other fossil fuel foolers swarming into the comments).
Sure didn’t take long for the equatorial eastern Pacific sea surface to warm significantly. In just 7 days a 2.4 degrees C temperature rise occurred at the location shown in the tiny green circle in the first 2 images as the deep warm water suddenly reached the sea surface (third image). It went from a - 1.2 C to + 1.2 C anomaly in a week which is stunningly fast. 1st image is from 8 days ago, second image yesterday. It could rise about another 2 degrees C and spread throughout the eastern 1/3 of the equatorial Pacific within just another few weeks. If that were to happen we could be looking at a Super El Niño developing which would be awful news because it would signal a large spike in global average surface air temperature as much of the oceanic heat releases to the atmosphere by 2027. This would be while marine heatwaves generally continue spreading and intensifying year to year across the world. Not good at all.
Look at how fast the marine heat wave in the eastern South Pacific is spreading (images 1 to 2). Looks like we could have a huge change in global weather soon induced from rapid warming of both the central/ eastern equatorial Pacific and the eastern South Pacific sea surfaces.
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Why not try cycling to work, grocery store, anywhere!
tyweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 04, 2026 8:25 am
Could be a super strong El Nino coming up. FB post from John Scheve
EL NINO BEGINS SUDDENLY AND IT COULD BE A STRONG TO SUPER ONE BY SEPTEMBER
This will not technically be an El Nino until the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) “3.4 region” in the central equatorial Pacific warms to a + 0.5 C anomaly for 3 consecutive months. That could easily happen by February - March - April so the official start will probably be March which would be a full month earlier than the earliest in the year El Niño (1982-1983) on record which formed in April 1982. The next earliest was the 1997-1998 El Niño which began in May 1997. Both those El Ninos were very strong. Our climate is rapidly devolving into chaos as g l o b a l w a r m i n g accelerates. (I space out those 2 words to reduce by ~90% the propaganda spewing trolls and bots orchestrated by Putin and other fossil fuel foolers swarming into the comments).
Sure didn’t take long for the equatorial eastern Pacific sea surface to warm significantly. In just 7 days a 2.4 degrees C temperature rise occurred at the location shown in the tiny green circle in the first 2 images as the deep warm water suddenly reached the sea surface (third image). It went from a - 1.2 C to + 1.2 C anomaly in a week which is stunningly fast. 1st image is from 8 days ago, second image yesterday. It could rise about another 2 degrees C and spread throughout the eastern 1/3 of the equatorial Pacific within just another few weeks. If that were to happen we could be looking at a Super El Niño developing which would be awful news because it would signal a large spike in global average surface air temperature as much of the oceanic heat releases to the atmosphere by 2027. This would be while marine heatwaves generally continue spreading and intensifying year to year across the world. Not good at all.
Look at how fast the marine heat wave in the eastern South Pacific is spreading (images 1 to 2). Looks like we could have a huge change in global weather soon induced from rapid warming of both the central/ eastern equatorial Pacific and the eastern South Pacific sea surfaces.
Super +ENSO, with continued -QBO/+TNH will deliver another brutal winter to the Great Lakes and continued snow droughts out West with even warmer departures here for DJF. There's no doubt we are seeing a seismic shift in our climate right now...whether this is a semi-permanent shift or a blip in the timeline remains to be seen.
It would get more people talking if this impressive winter heat were impacting the Eastern CONUS.
tyweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 04, 2026 8:25 am
Could be a super strong El Nino coming up. FB post from John Scheve
EL NINO BEGINS SUDDENLY AND IT COULD BE A STRONG TO SUPER ONE BY SEPTEMBER
This will not technically be an El Nino until the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) “3.4 region” in the central equatorial Pacific warms to a + 0.5 C anomaly for 3 consecutive months. That could easily happen by February - March - April so the official start will probably be March which would be a full month earlier than the earliest in the year El Niño (1982-1983) on record which formed in April 1982. The next earliest was the 1997-1998 El Niño which began in May 1997. Both those El Ninos were very strong. Our climate is rapidly devolving into chaos as g l o b a l w a r m i n g accelerates. (I space out those 2 words to reduce by ~90% the propaganda spewing trolls and bots orchestrated by Putin and other fossil fuel foolers swarming into the comments).
Sure didn’t take long for the equatorial eastern Pacific sea surface to warm significantly. In just 7 days a 2.4 degrees C temperature rise occurred at the location shown in the tiny green circle in the first 2 images as the deep warm water suddenly reached the sea surface (third image). It went from a - 1.2 C to + 1.2 C anomaly in a week which is stunningly fast. 1st image is from 8 days ago, second image yesterday. It could rise about another 2 degrees C and spread throughout the eastern 1/3 of the equatorial Pacific within just another few weeks. If that were to happen we could be looking at a Super El Niño developing which would be awful news because it would signal a large spike in global average surface air temperature as much of the oceanic heat releases to the atmosphere by 2027. This would be while marine heatwaves generally continue spreading and intensifying year to year across the world. Not good at all.
Look at how fast the marine heat wave in the eastern South Pacific is spreading (images 1 to 2). Looks like we could have a huge change in global weather soon induced from rapid warming of both the central/ eastern equatorial Pacific and the eastern South Pacific sea surfaces.
Looks like the only other recorded El Nino to start that early (basides 1982-83 in the March-April-May timeframe) was way back in 1902-03. Rare stuff!
No report from White Rock, for some reason.
