PortKells wrote: ↑Wed Feb 18, 2026 2:52 pm
Obviously just more bogus GFS stuff but it would be funny to get this snow event that turns off the taps right as March arrives, just to troll Rubes and his no-March-snow thing.
GFS has been full of crap. Euro shows a more believable pattern with a split flow that evolves into a more spring time pattern with the full retracting polar jet and rising heights over the western CONUS.
Full on +TNH with yet another PV disruption that will bring copious amounts of snow to Southern Ontario again in March.
Last edited by wetcoast91 on Wed Feb 18, 2026 7:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Hawk wrote: ↑Wed Feb 18, 2026 5:42 pm
i was hoping for some better results the last 24 hours or so. It didnt turn out so well, in The Year without a Winter
Tell us again Typing!!
PortKells wrote: ↑Wed Feb 18, 2026 7:27 pm
I just looked at the upper level temperatures for those "events".
My god the snow maps are broken on these models. It's not even close.
Sat is a wildcard but I assume we will see a decent amount of virga with precip not reaching the ground. The 2nd impulse on Sunday is all rain up to 1800m. I have no idea why the models are somehow worse than 10 years ago. A fair amount of warm air rides up due south, up to 700mb. 850mb temps above +1C but somehow...it shows snow? You will get downsloping E winds at the surface which will warm up the column up to 1200m.
wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 18, 2026 7:15 pm
GFS has been full of crap. Euro shows a more believable pattern with a split flow that evolves into a more spring time pattern with the full retracting polar jet and rising heights over the western CONUS.
Full on +TNH with yet another PV disruption that will bring copious amounts of snow to Southern Ontario again in March.
I truly wish we had the climate of the 50's and 60's where the dominant pattern was a -PNA/Alaska block. Enough of this +TNH garbage.
AbbyJr wrote: ↑Wed Feb 18, 2026 8:42 pm
The snow maps are useful when we have arctic air to work with but they are borderline if not utterly useless during marginal setups.
They are actually detrimental really. It's incredibly stupid that I keep going back to them. But sometimes you just want to believe
I think I might just go with the Icon snow maps. They are always conservative, maybe to a fault but it seems like not really. I think they've only shown snow like 2-3 times this winter. Like of like how the AIFS has the 500 mb world on lockdown, the ICON is the snow king.
wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 18, 2026 7:51 pm
Sat is a wildcard but I assume we will see a decent amount of virga with precip not reaching the ground. The 2nd impulse on Sunday is all rain up to 1800m. I have no idea why the models are somehow worse than 10 years ago. A fair amount of warm air rides up due south, up to 700mb. 850mb temps above +1C but somehow...it shows snow? You will get downsloping E winds at the surface which will warm up the column up to 1200m.
Good thing many here can interpret the models.
Just checked. Last chance for YVR, and it's on to spring. Still think it's BS because I'm seeing plus two. I'm flying so ill miss if this break it by some fluke good luck
