November 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Storm]

18Z NAM going the way of the ECMWF. Less precip and a SE wind signature leading to milder near SL along western sections but colder in the Valley. Very much an elevation event now.

Much better for Thursday.

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[AbbyJr]

It's currently 0.6C here with a dew point of -10C. Breezy outflow winds. Had some slush last night so some sidewalks are slippery.

[Typeing3]

12z WRF-GFS total accumulated snowfall thru 4pm Wednesday
(1.33km resolution)

wa_snowacc.60.0000.gif

[Storm]

I think we are over analyzing to models. Just a thought.

[VanCitySouth]

I'm gonna guess, for LM:

Richmond, Delta, and sea level (Burrard Inlet): 5-10 cm
City of Vancouver: 5-15 cm
Eastern suburbs: 10-20 cm
Upper North Shore/SFU/Plateau (above 300m): 15-30 cm

[moonshadow0825]

Seeing some outflow winds , temp 3° but DP is an astounding -10° , that's quite the spread. Don't see that too often, especially November.

similar here, 3.7 C but dewpoint is -7C, the dew has dropped like a stone since 6 am when it was at 1C

[Nordelian]

Looks like 10-20 cm for most is a good forecast, depending on your elevation and how shielded you are from the dry outflow

[Storm]

18z KUCHERA

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[Hawk]

I think we are over analyzing to models. Just a thought.

Yup..the models are struggling...flipping and flopping so they can claim victory either way. Im going to bet on a mainly snow event for inland/higher areas. Coastal areas and bogs...sorry..likely too marginal to score this time around. Better luck next time, or

[Forrest Gump]

Should see some nice overnight lows tonight you would think with the clear skies.

[Glacier]

1971-2000 normals? I believe some of those stations have since shut down.

No, 1981-2010 normals, but most stations have since closed, and many only have 15 years of data (closed in the mid-90s).

Here is the Lower Mainland...

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[Catnip]

Current DP -10.4c

Don’t forget your chap stick.

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[tyweather]

My work mets are calling for 10-30cm in western lower mainland, 15-45cm for central and eastern Fraser Valley with a change over to rain Wednesday morning that coincides with possible short period of high SE winds. The winds over the Georgia Straight may gust over 100km/h.

The Central Coast and Vancouver Island will see light snow developing during the morning, but likely holding off in the Lower Mainland until the afternoon. Precipitation intensity increases Tuesday evening, with the heaviest precipitation falling overnight into Wednesday morning. Although valley bottom precipitation type will be varied, virtually all precipitation will be snow over our South Coast basins, with 30-60 cm (30-60 mm snow-water equivalent) expected.

Precipitation type over lowland areas of the South Coast is uncertain. The most likely forecast, however, is for a changeover to rain for the lowest elevations of Vancouver Island Tuesday evening and night, allowing for 5-15 cm of accumulation before then. For the western Lower Mainland, the most likely changeover time is early Wednesday morning, allowing for 10-30 cm accumulation. The central and eastern Fraser Valley are likely to see the most significant accumulations, with 15-45 cm. Amounts/changeover-time will vary with elevation, and there will be some areas that see significant wet snow accumulation, leading to outages. Significant freezing rain is unlikely.

The Lower Mainland will escape much of the southeasterly blow, with light to moderate easterly outflow winds, although it’s possible that a short period of moderate to strong south to southeasterly winds affects the western Lower Mainland on Wednesday morning, coincident with the potential snow to rain transition. Winds will combine with wet snow loading to compound outage risk in some areas, as well as making for blizzard conditions (falling and blowing snow, dangerous for travel).

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

12Z models still look pretty good, actually. A decent shot at getting 15–30 cm is nothing to sneeze at.

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

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12z ECMWF ensembles:

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12z GEM ensembles:

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