September 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

[Weather101]

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

2 days and counting

In theory what they mean is "Dear loyal customers please be patient while we continue to find ways to pay the ransomeware cyber attack we have set up a go fund me page to recover the 10 million dollars requested by the cyber hackers.
In the meantime pease be patient we have no clue what the weather is doing anywhere in the country."
It's currently a warm 24c @ the best pond in south Sardis.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

This is your parents hood isn't it Ty my man with the bike yikes!
Watch out for this bear, just was in silvermill’s parking lot eating garbage out of someone truck box
Just seen it 5 minutes ago could still be there

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[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Stuffyman, Hounddog some mod can you please fix the topic l incorrectly made last winter titled "Winter 2023/2033 Snowfall Reports please change to 2023/2024 thanks it looks goofy.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Jr. Man you forgot your August stats. Kristi Gordon on Global news just said mild and dry winter,
I disagree completely.

[Nordelian]

Jr. Man you forgot your August stats. Kristi Gordon on Global news just said mild and dry winter,
I disagree completely.

I mean, pretty much every seasonal forecast is suggesting warm and dry, and it'll be a moderately strong El Nino...

Dry and warm is pretty much the universal forecast for the PNW

[Weather101]

[AbbyJr]

Jr. Man you forgot your August stats. Kristi Gordon on Global news just said mild and dry winter,
I disagree completely.

I'm so bad for remembering to post my stats. I'm sorry about that. I'll get them posted tomorrow.

As for the winter forecast, typically El Niño is mild and dry but as I previously mentioned, this winter will likely be a -PDO/+ENSO cycle.

When the PDO and ENSO are in the same state, it can enhance the effects of ENSO but when they are in opposite states, it can counter the effects of ENSO. In other words, El Niño may have less of an effect this winter due to the -PDO conditions interacting with the +ENSO.

Essentially, we have the -PDO favouring cooler/wetter conditions meeting up with the +ENSO, which promotes a mild and dry pattern.

My guess is that this winter will be much like this past summer. That is, no single pattern will dominate. Should be periods of cooler and wetter than normal followed by periods where it will be mild and drier than average. I wouldn't rule out a significant arctic blast and snowfall. Statistically, our colder and snowier El Niño's were during a -PDO cycle. I'm not sounding the winter cancel alarm just yet. Stay tuned.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

I'm so bad for remembering to post my stats. I'm sorry about that. I'll get them posted tomorrow.

As for the winter forecast, typically El Niño is mild and dry but as I previously mentioned, this winter will likely be a -PDO/+ENSO cycle.

When the PDO and ENSO are in the same state, it can enhance the effects of ENSO but when they are in opposite states, it can counter the effects of ENSO. In other words, El Niño may have less of an effect this winter due to the -PDO conditions interacting with the +ENSO.

Essentially, we have the -PDO favouring cooler/wetter conditions meeting up with the +ENSO, which promotes a mild and dry pattern.

My guess is that this winter will be much like this past summer. That is, no single pattern will dominate. Should be periods of cooler and wetter than normal followed by periods where it will be mild and drier than average. I wouldn't rule out a significant arctic blast and snowfall. Statistically, our colder and snowier El Niño's were during a -PDO cycle. I'm not sounding the winter cancel alarm just yet. Stay tuned.

Lovely explanation Jr. Man l know you mentioned that awhile ago.
Tmaps mentioned awhile back the cold snowy winter of 68/69 when YVR set their coldest low what was El Nino's strength? also what was the PDO/ENSO that winter?

[stuffradio]

Who wants to go from drought to flood in ~1 day?

2023091400_054@007_E1_yxx_I_NAEFS@EPSGRAMS_tt@surf@nt@pr@ws@surf_360.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Who wants to go from drought to flood in ~1 day?

2023091400_054@007_E1_yxx_I_NAEFS@EPSGRAMS_tt@surf@nt@pr@ws@surf_360.png

18 mm of rain in 12 hours is not a flood.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

18 mm of rain in 12 hours is not a flood.

Anything that creates a puddle is classified as a flood in our new climate Rubes.
It was a chilly 11c in Abbs when l left work this morning down near Sumas.

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Thank you Stuffed ravioli for fixing the Winter 2022/2023 snowfall reports.
One more thing there's a duplicate Winter 2023/2024 topic could you please delete Jr's. thanks.

[Weather101]

Who wants to go from drought to flood in ~1 day?

2023091400_054@007_E1_yxx_I_NAEFS@EPSGRAMS_tt@surf@nt@pr@ws@surf_360.png

We would be okay with this amount.

[Weather101]

I mean, pretty much every seasonal forecast is suggesting warm and dry, and it'll be a moderately strong El Nino...

Dry and warm is pretty much the universal forecast for the PNW

This winter will be dry and warm. May see some snow but it won't be anywhere as close as last winter.