August 2025 Forecasts and Discussion

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Roberts Creeker
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Re: August 2025 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Roberts Creeker »

AbbyJr wrote: Wed Aug 20, 2025 10:10 pm The 00Z GEM wants to keep the heat going for 8 days straight. Similar to the July 2018 heatwave in terms of temperatures and duration. :clap: :wave:


gem-all-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-5734400.png
:o :shock:
I don't mind the 3 day heatwaves but 8 days is a lot!

EC has a much more reasonable 27c high with cool night. It's not too bad when you can cool the house down overnight.
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Snow total: 1cm Dec 24, 1cm Feb 19
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HarrisonSasquatchWx
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Re: August 2025 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Glacier wrote: Wed Aug 20, 2025 12:23 pm A bit stormy in Kansas...

536019760_10172071281700632_6917245807793829759_n.jpg
Not much thrust Glace. :lol:
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
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HarrisonSasquatchWx
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Re: August 2025 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

AbbyJr wrote: Wed Aug 20, 2025 10:10 pm The 00Z GEM wants to keep the heat going for 8 days straight. Similar to the July 2018 heatwave in terms of temperatures and duration. :clap: :wave:


gem-all-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-5734400.png
:sick: 37c for Hope OMG that's a bit much hopefully this time of year overnight low's will give us a reprieve. :D
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
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Hawk
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Re: August 2025 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Hawk »

AbbyJr wrote: Wed Aug 20, 2025 10:10 pm The 00Z GEM wants to keep the heat going for 8 days straight. Similar to the July 2018 heatwave in terms of temperatures and duration. :clap: :wave:


gem-all-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-5734400.png
models and graphs are great. But climo says we peak out for 3-4 days max at ~31-32c. We will see! :think: :think:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
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Re: August 2025 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by PortKells »

Hawk wrote: Thu Aug 21, 2025 7:36 am models and graphs are great. But climo says we peak out for 3-4 days max at ~31-32c. We will see! :think: :think:
I just looked at the graphs. It’s going to be a bloodbath, climo be damned.
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Re: August 2025 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by AbbyJr »

ecmwf-aifs-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_tmp-5777600.png
nbm-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-5795600.png
ecmwf-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-5777600.png
gem-all-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-5777600.png
gfs-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-5777600.png
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Re: August 2025 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

AbbyJr wrote: Thu Aug 21, 2025 11:55 am ecmwf-aifs-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_tmp-5777600.png

nbm-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-5795600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-5777600.png

gem-all-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-5777600.png

gfs-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-5777600.png
Interesting how the blend is generally warmer than any of {Euro, GEM, GFS}.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: August 2025 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by HarrisonSasquatchWx »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Thu Aug 21, 2025 12:24 pm Interesting how the blend is generally warmer than any of {Euro, GEM, GFS}.
It figures Rubes we crash just in time for the Labor Day weekend :x it's currently 24c @ the pond in south Sardis.
Current conditions in Harrison Hot Springs:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/ ... wx_pwsdash
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Re: August 2025 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by PortKells »

#BeginningofFeb is looking good
cfs-mon_01_T850a_us_6.png
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AbbyJr
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Re: August 2025 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by AbbyJr »

PortKells wrote: Thu Aug 21, 2025 2:42 pm #BeginningofFeb is looking good

cfs-mon_01_T850a_us_6.png
Good to hear from you. Nice to have you back here. :D :wave:
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Re: August 2025 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Hawk »

Low of 4.8c in the Similks this am :think: :think:
We are slowly getting there buttees :thumbup: :thumbup:
Looking forward to our first 3 day stretch of sun and 20c++ 8-)
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
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Re: August 2025 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Typeing3 »

Next 15-16 days total precip on the ensembles


12z GEFS (GFS ensembles)
gfs-ens_apcpn_wus_64 (14).png

12z EPS (ECMWF ensembles)
eps_apcpn_wus_60 (13).png

12z GEPS (GEM ensembles)
gem-ens_apcpn_wus_64 (14).png
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Re: August 2025 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by AbbyJr »

Here are the latest Euro AIFS ensembles and National Blend of Models:

ecmwf-aifs-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_tmp-5799200.png
nbm-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-5817200.png
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Re: August 2025 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Canada Goose »

35-40°C for the hottest places of the province.
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Re: August 2025 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by John »

Hawk wrote: Wed Aug 20, 2025 6:49 pm It is possible. But the way this "moderate" summer weather has been, im not betting on any major heat in Sept. Maybe even earlier pineapples this year :think: :think:
Well said :clap:
Last edited by John on Thu Aug 21, 2025 7:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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