December 2025 Forecasts and Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Models will holm in on a massive arctic blast in the final week of December. Think snow maps depicting 100cm of snow and temps dropping down to -20C. 5 days to the event...a shocking rug pull as the block gets undercut and the cold air slides to the East. We see a day of +2C rain before temps spike to +12C under heavy rain and southerly winds.

Just when all hope is lost...a massive ridge builds over the West Coast for January. We see weeks of frost and tons of fake cold...We do the usual post mortem and bring out thousands of images of forks but February delivers again with days of snow and sleet that accumulate to a slushy few cm!

Nito mentioned 12˚C rain!

shots-drink-2029229531.gif

[AbbyJr]

Late December through mid January is the time to watch for the south coast; been thinking that for a while now. The north and interior will get in on the goods first with a cold pool developing as we get into mid month.




Extrapolate the overall pattern depicted there (precursors to a GOA & Aleutian block merger) and it results in a long lasting cold snap for our region. There's that late month sign again!

FWIW, that prediction is in line with what the Euro weeklies have been showing. Regardless, I'm in full agreement with your assessment.

In the meantime, I think we'll likely go into a stormy pattern with potential atmospheric rivers and wind events for some areas. So there should still be some fun things to track in the models. Hopefully we can score at least a half decent cold and snowy period. I don't want to think about a potential 2000/01 nightmare. The only decent weather event that winter was the windstorm on December 15th. Wind gusts with that storm hit 95km/h at YXX (Abbotsford airport.) Other than that, it was a pretty boring winter with run of the mill rains and chilly but mostly above zero temperatures.

Unfortunately, 2000/01 is one of the analogs I've seen for this winter as it was also a weak La Niña with a -QBO and a Canadian SSW in November.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

FWIW, that prediction is in line with what the Euro weeklies have been showing. Regardless, I'm in full agreement with your assessment.

In the meantime, I think we'll likely go into a stormy pattern with potential atmospheric rivers and wind events for some areas. So there should still be some fun things to track in the models. Hopefully we can score at least a half decent cold and snowy period. I don't want to think about a potential 2000/01 nightmare. The only decent weather event that winter was the windstorm on December 15th. Wind gusts with that storm hit 95km/h at YXX (Abbotsford airport.) Other than that, it was a pretty boring winter with run of the mill rains and chilly but mostly above zero temperatures.

Unfortunately, 2000/01 is one of the analogs I've seen for this winter as it was also a weak La Niña with a -QBO and a Canadian SSW in November.

Was living in Portland for the 2000/01 winter and it suckity suck suck sucked there. No snow except for one day of flurries (no accumulation). Not much rain either, caused a pretty nasty drought the following summer.

[AbbyJr]

Was living in Portland for the 2000/01 winter and it suckity suck suck sucked there. No snow except for one day of flurries (no accumulation). Not much rain either, caused a pretty nasty drought the following summer.

Luckily, I avoided the worst of that winter as I was still living in Prince George at the time. Got quite cold with decent snowfall but it wasn't the snowiest winter I've experienced while living there. Though I was young back then so even 20cm felt like a blizzard.

[Catnip]

#midDEC+

[AbbyJr]

The 00Z Euro gets close but unfortunately, the GOA block gets undercut right as it tries to tilt into a favourable position. It still gets cold briefly though and even shows some snow, mostly for the Fraser Valley and parts of the Island. Obviously these are fantasy clown range maps.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5389600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5497600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5756800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-5562400.png

[Hawk]

Beauty morning in the Similks with around 6-8" of snow on the ground after last nights 5cm new. EC was bang on (again)


Coastally, looks like a return to Nito weather and over the next several days. Nito is always winning!!

[Storm]

The Squirrel has limps.

[AbbyJr]

Bingo! The GOA block doesn't get undercut this time. Clown range but it's interesting to see the colder signal show up on consecutive Euro runs.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5843200.png

There is also some ensemble support:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5843200.png

And here's the run-to-run change:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_dprog-5843200.png

[wetcoast91]

The Squirrel has limps.

Indeed a limping squirrel.

[stuffradio]

On the 00Z EPSgram, the CMC drops to -10C mid-December and the NCEP drops to -15C.

[tyweather]

Cold

[Catnip]

Indeed a limping squirrel.

IMG_0046.jpeg

[HarrisonSasquatchWx]

Indeed a limping squirrel.

Here we go again right Neeettzz.

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[Typeing3]

Bingo! The GOA block doesn't get undercut this time. Clown range but it's interesting to see the colder signal show up on consecutive Euro runs.


ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5843200.png


There is also some ensemble support:


ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5843200.png


And here's the run-to-run change:


ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_dprog-5843200.png

#endofDEC